Go to Today's Deals   Scroll Down for historical activities Updated frequently. The historical Blogs are below in order, scroll down to the area with this background colour to view the developments from August 2010 to February 2011 - all the mistakes and good moves are there to review. FUNDAMENTAL PREDICTIONS; principle assumptions: There is no chance of a double dip. Instead we are at the beginning of a major bull market lasting for two years. Euroland will come out of the present difficulties STRONGER not weaker. Some predictions for 2011 - with adjustments later if targets hit Rather than make them and then disappear - here all my fundamental predictions for all to view: 1. FTSE 7000 by Christmas 2011  2. LLOY 100 before August AND WILL BREAK OUT TO 75+ BY THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY (Well Mar '11 - got that wrong, but remain convinced that LLOY will shift soon 3. OIL over 100$ a barrel by end Feb 2011, following this predicted harsh winter across the northern hemisphre.(Update 1 Feb - Oil at $100 for March Delivery UK - got that right!)  4. Gold 1600$ oz by year end (2 Feb update - anything between 1500 and 2000 during the year) 5.MATRA 10p by Easter 2011; other minnows come on - Dixons 23 (25 Mar - surely a BUY at 17) and Taylor Wimpy 31 and Game 70 to double within 6 months (1 July)  (Those in green achieved and stable, those in red achieved and then dipped) Comments made in August 2010 - with adjustments later if targets hit Rather than make them and then disappear - here all my fundamental predictions for all to view: 1. FTSE 6000 by Christmas (Currently - March - reversed on North Africa and Japan... but principle of back to 6000 quickly, holds) 2. LLOY 100 by Christmas 3. OIL over 100$ a barrel by end Feb 2011, following a predicted harsh winter across the northern hemisphre. 4. Gold 1300$ oz by Feb 2011 5.MATRA 10p by Christmas 2011 -  that would be very nice. (Those in green achieved and stable, those in red achieved and then dipped) I got LLOY wrong, but I could not foresee -  who else did? - the stupidity of the Greeks, the Irish, and the rest which impacted the banks, and from the beginning the monstrous misjudgement of the top bankers is to blame for everything. They cannot escape it. The idea that they will all flee to Switzerland if their bonuses are stopped must put the Swiss in a state of terror only matched by the threat of Plague in the Middle Ages.
click to : GO TO TODAY'S DEALS PAGE FOR CONTINUATION OF THIS COLUMN SCROLL DOWN FOR HISTORICAL BLOGS:...   Main Portfolio Plans and Comments ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wk Beg Monday 17th January: (FTSE: 6004 up 18 from last week; DOW: 11697  up 85; Main portfolio £92,365 (up on the week £1,954, Total fund: £95,465 (including £3,000 for any new purchase): ................................................................................................................ Friday 21st January 09.30: Late arrival at PC - Far East was in the red almost universally over night but the rally here I predicted yesterday appears to be in place, albeit a small one. Hope it holds as the day runs on. 18.00: Up £1,012 on the day and down £1,596 on the week. Not good. Thursday 20th January Across the world it is red, a general retreat... a sentimental withdrawal, a damned nuisance. Not sure what is going on or justifying it. I hope it is a false dusk because I am not getting out. 08.30: I am well down on the day even thus far and fear all of last week's gain is gone. Yet there are a handful of blue which were not there half an hour ago. Hope spring eternal. 18.00: So much for hope. The general retreat brought another blood-spill day and I am down £1,643. Usually a two day fall produced a third day rally... not hope spring eternal again. Wednesday 19th January Far East largly up a trifle, and DOW closed up 50 indicative of positive inspiration for the FTSE today. 18.00: .Out most of the day and evenint. Down £1,248 on the day. Tuesday 18th January Except for Indonesia the Far East is up across the board with the Nikkei moving up a modest16. I am looking for a recovery today and perhaps a counter to yesterday's loss. 18.00: Some small recovery: up £356 on the day - still about £350 down on the week. Thought LLOY was going to blast today, but no luck. ARM came to the aid of the party again. Monday 17th January 09.00: No lead from the Far East the Dow on Friday closed 55 up. Every indication this morning of dithering drift in no set direction, for want of news. Hope the first news of consequence is not bad news. 18.00: Not a good start to the week down £683 - mainly ARM retreating and the banks. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wk Beg Monday 10th January: (FTSE: 5984 up 85 from last week; DOW: 11697  up 85; Main portfolio £90411 (up on the week £1,803, Total fund: £93411 (including £3,000 for any new purchase): ................................................................................................................ Friday 14th January I am expecting a decline in the market, and certainly my portfolio today... the DOW failed to close in positive territory and this was followed across the Far East. I think my winning streak is over. 08.45: Yes a red screen but ARM has shot up almost 50  which will counter the other losses across my portfolio if it holds. 17.30: Some general declines hurt today but am uo £651 on the day. The Dow is in positive territory at this point and with a bit of good news over the weekend might do well again next week - that feeling I have had for six months that we are in the beginning of a bull market just will not go away. And WOW I am up over £2,000 on the week. Thursday 13th January Far East spurted, except for Inda, following the Dow closing at 83 - earlier up over 100. Could be yesterday's rally will continue. 20.00: Been away from the screen -  always profitable. Up £1,021 on the day - largely a recovery in GAME, and I do not think we have heard the last of it. Wednesday 12th January The Far East is following the modest rise of34 on the DOW into positive territory; the trend is up my friend. 18.00: Some recovery on the day... ended up £1,004, but really this is only recovery of losses last week and on Monday and Tuesday... let us see what tomorrow will bring. Tuesday 11th January 08.30: Came to the PC late this morning expecting the worst - Far EAst Down Dow closed 37 down -  but my screen was blue and FTSE tickling 40 and probably, at this rate yesterday's loss recovered. Why? Am I right that everyone is wrong and we really are at the start of that bull market. I sense a great pressure of available cash out there, despite all of the keyboard driven man bites dog gloom. 16.15: Will not get full recovery but something. Meanwhile Oil heads towards 100$ (96.13) fir Feb delivery and we have not had winter yet! 18.00: Up £549 on the day - so still £723 down on the week. Monday 10th January Despite a poor showing on the last two days of last week both indices progressed a jot, as did my main portfolio, and even the spread betting. Can I hazard that the bad news for the moment is over, the scribblers will pour oil on troubled water (God forbid), rather  - they will speak of doom, and the shrewd ones will be buying. I see not reason to get rid of my underlying optimism. The world is in much better shape than it was six months ago. There will be no double dip. We are in the beginning of a great bull market. BUY! (But shrewdly and expect to make mistakes - I shall) 08.30: Far East red across the board... and so are we... thus far. 18.30: Rotten bloody start to the week down on everything, and all the dribs and drabs added to a lost of £1,272 on the day, to say nothing of the £60 on spread betting. LLOYDS BP and MATRA the villains... tomorrow, tomorrow and tomorrow speeds in this petty trade from day to day... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wk Beg Tuesday 4th January: (FTSE: 5899 down 103 from last week; DOW: 11569  up 5; Main portfolio £88508 (up on the week £808, Total fund: £92508 (including £4,000 for any new purchase): ................................................................................................................ Friday 7th January With the DOW finishing negative yesterday and nothing in the form of a positive lead in the Far East there is a general retreat today with yesterday's best: BP and ARM leading the way. Hope the day gets a bit better later but I am not optimistic. Thursday 6th January The Far East fmarginally mixed following the lead of the DOW (up 31 on the day) but the Nikkei put on 148. This suggests perhaps a good day across the board with enough gains to push the FTSE towards and even beyond the 6100 mark. Towards the close yesterday there was some selling of MATRA, so maybe short time traders took their profits. But there is not all that much stock, by definition of it being an AIM stock. I have a thrilling hope that on one good bit of news this share could head towards 10p at least.  I have quite a few irons in the minnow fire at the moment and though I am at lunch all day, as one is, it could be a good day for me... I shall look forward to getting home. 21.00: at one point I think I was close to £2,000 up on the day... then the Yanks went lacklustre and everything fell away and I ended down £500 on the day as the FTSE went from 50ish up to 24 down. Wednesday 5th January I am looking for slight gains today with the FTSE staying just above 6000 already. I am convinced that banks are in for a rise, but am now concerned about Desire and its prospects, and its prospecting. I have held these shares for years, and made a lot of profit, but wonder if I should not dispose as I have with Rockhopper -  and probably live to regret it. 08.00: Far East mixed and the DOW (up 20 at close) giving no real lead. 08.10: Bought 2000 RBS at 0.4006, now hold 6000 (See discussion in blue below) 17.30: Market came back a bit in the last hour with the FTSE finishing 29.99 to the north; the DOW as I write is up a very similar amount. Oil is going up and benefitting my minnows... MATRA up 0.035p and MAX up 4.5p these alone mean close to £1,000 on the day for me. Overall finished up £1,478 on the day Tuesday 4th January The DOW closed up a nice 93 and the whole of the Far East was up over night with the Nikkei putting on a promising 169. With the gloom of the festive season over, the pathetic moans of Milliband striking on deaf ears I hope, and the results of the not disasterous sales period, rising oil prices (and thus opil shares)... mmm rather optimistic this morning. But then, that is not unusual.  08.15: The year starts with bad news for me as Desire has a dud well and is down 25% (11.5p), trade is light so this is a mark down. Remains to be seen whether the mark down will  hold or go lower. Desire becomes a BUY in my book if it drops to 20. 18.00: Up £785 on the day... Read an interesting article in the Standard this evening on the way back from town…Three strikes and you are out… three failures on the part of Desire and investors are leaving. There were 17 millions shares sold and bought today: 7,269K bought and 9,444 sold… this is not exactly a rout…However the article went on to say that Desire would need more money soon… had enough for two more wells, but had to wait on Rockhopper to do some more themselves before getting the rig back.  And, the most interesting point -  Desire almost certainly drilled the most promising sites they held FIRST… and nothing.  Mmmm. I then read elsewhere that investors may have overdone selling RBS, due to the Irish links scares…. I am tinkering with the thought of selling, say, 5000 Desire and buying 5000 RBS  - they are about the same… the question is what are the possibilities of Desire going to 60 and the same chances of RBS doing the same thing. DON’T KNOW… ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wk Beg 29th December: (FTSE: 6002 up 131 from last week; DOW: 11554  up 84; Main portfolio £87700 (up on the week £2518, Total fund: £92200 (including £4,500 for any new purchase): ................................................................................................................ Friday 31st December For what its worth during this shortened trading day -  nothing will happen of any worth. Thursday 30th December In this unnatural virtually two and half day week there is not much business overall. The DOW finished up 9, bu the Far EAst has disappointed with equally small rises across the board except that the NIKKEI is down 115. Oil continues to rise and might bring the minnows up again, and if there is no recovery in Desire, or a fall I might add some. They have a lot of real estate in likely areas still, just bad luck it seems. 08.18: Bt 1,852 Desire at 0.411 and of course they have decline. 13.30: With cash flow as it was I could not really afford more Desire... shame... they have gone up about 8p since I bought them. Matra has again been busy too... at one point up 0.6 -  quite a big share turnover too, for Matra. 14.50: Market's drifting, volume low -  roll on next Tuesday when this eternal festive season shows it is only temporarily permanent, until next year. 18.00: Though much of Desire's rise was lost at the end of the day -  up1.5 - Matra managed to hold 0.45 so I was up overall £556. Tomorrow will be pretty useless whatever happens but I am now going to sit and think of how things might go next year. Wednesday 29th December Beginning with poor news from Desire and a fall of 13 with another dud well. The rest of the market light, as it will remain until next Tuesday. 18.00: Despite a drop worth about £1,500 on Desire, other minnows saved the day and I was down £30. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wk Beg 20th December: (FTSE: 5871 up 63 from last week; DOW: 11470  up 81; Main portfolio £85182 (up on the week £864, Total fund: £89,638 (including £4,500 for any new purchase): ................................................................................................................ Friday 24th December Short trading day today... should not say this but thus far up £2,130 on the week. Fingers crossed once more for a rise in BP, MATRA, LLOY and GAME - in fact a bit of a lift across the board. Then comes the long weekend and that followed by another short week - Tues to half of Friday and then panic in a second short week: Tues 4th to Friday... and some indication of the volume of sales over the so-called festive so-called season. This against the backdrop of weather, rising commodity prices, rising interest rates (stronger pound, unless everyone puts rates up, which I guess they will), and in particular rises in Gold and Oil.  This will be reconsidered for the beginning of the year and some fresh predictions which I already have in mind. But nothing is certain, that alone is certain. 08.45: The markets of the world are relentlessly dull, as predicted. Hopefully everyone is out shopping and flying to other lands. Seems little point in even watching events. Thursday 23rd December To all intents and purposes this is the last day of the market until next Tuesday - things will trickle even today, and tomorrow will be an early close. My essential innate optimism remains undulled - that even this could be the day for a a big rise in the portfolio. Thus spake the gambler, even if the Far East is static, and the DOW upped a miserable 26. I am left with fingers crossed. 08.05: MATRA announces a 20 year, extendable, production license has been granted, and rises 0.775 (30%) - so production of their two prettywell proven small wells in their wholly owned Sokolovskoe Field is secure - possible future better wells ? 11.10: What I love about this game is first one goes up and then another goes up the next day, and the first comes down. One step forward has never rung so true. Yesterday ARM went up well over 30, today it is down 20 - have not been able to find the reason for such fluctuation, but it blows away what might have been a good day for me with MATRA holding around the 0.6+ range. Meanwhile BP prospers and is up 6 which means a jump of £60 on the spread betting which is a big relief for I was very exposed. 18.00: Up £502 on the day... ARM finally lost10.5 and MATRA fell away to a gain of 0.425, the one countering the other and thus avoiding a major rise or fall on the main portfolio... but if I could do this every day I would be on 100K a year. Wednesday 22nd December DOW rose 55 over night and the Far East marginally mixed or tradeless. Even ss FTSE might hit 6000 today. 18.00: Up £1,061 on the day -  largely due to a big rise in ARM - sold most of those off some weeks ago, but still have 2000. FTSE now just 17 from 6,000... is this so close so far away, or is it to be breached big time tomorrow in the final run up to Christmas? Tomorrow that will be revealed. However, the DOW seems spent at the moment struggling to stay up 29ish, not boding well. Tuesday 21st December Dow slightly down, Far East up across the board with the Nikkei puttng on 154. Interesting that Desire having spudded yesterday hardly moved. There was a time when that would have been worth 30 points but they have failed so often punters have doubts - ironic if they hit oil in the specified 30 days time.  Then the rig goes back to Rockhopper which put on 15 yesterday, must hang on to my remaining 1000. The news regarding Christmas spending may reverse the (for me) unexpected drop in GAME, and might lift DIXONS and Tesco further. Banks are due for a lift but the gloom surrounding the banks of Europe (France's turn yesterday) driven by the scriblers has kicked my prediction for 100 for LLOY by the end of the year. Not enough days left for that prediction... but there are 365 days in 2011 (it's not a leap year is it -  that could blow everything). 08.30: Market up 44 as this festive period - two entire weeks disrupted by holidays - 75 to go before the FTSE hits 6,000 and one of my predictions comes true. 13.50: Market gone into dither mode stuck at being up just over 50, which I suppose is something. Oil has motored to over 93 dpb for February delivery. If this goes on it will be good to own oil shares of any descriptions on account of sentiment - our greatest enemy and greatest friend... the collective word for that is fickle. 17.50: Up £828 on the day -  more than I expected. All I need now is a leap with Desire, a recovery in LLOY, huge advance in GAME and a miracle with MATRA - and all would be ready for the new year. With the FTSE up 60 on 49 points to go before 6,000. That shall happen tomorow! Am beginning to make inroads into the big loss of a couple of weeks ago. Monday 20th December Far East mixed and slack, Dow was down a tad. The weather has to hit the high street, and the same has push up oil prices. Bet you. 22.30: Computer problem not helped today. Down £261 on the day. A neither here nor there day. Reports this evening that in fact Christmas shopping may be better than expected, in spite of the weather, but a bit of a disaster for the unfortunates hoping to fly anyway.  But Eurostar is fully booked... silver lining - every event has one. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wk Beg 13th December: (FTSE: 5813 up 144 from last week; DOW: 11410  up 227; Main portfolio £84218 (down on week £4813, Total fund: £88,713 (including £4,500 for any new purchase): ................................................................................................................ Friday 17th December Though the DOW finished 41 up there is so sense of direction from the Far East. Opening looks like matching this dither state exactly. BP down 3 and dithering too, but the FTSE is rising. Hope springs eternal. 18.30: Up Up £190 on the day, slight surprise. Thursday 16th December Last night a news flash came across the Sky screen to say that the sad Obama regieme was going to sue BP and others for unlimited amounts. That, of course, is a matter for the courts; because that is where they are being sued. This event will take YEARS and and was EXPECTED. But sentiment would be dented again. I thus expected a drop on BP today and obliteration of all progress on my spread betting account. I was right. 09.40: BP down 13! Not as bad as I expected. 16.30: In the Telegraph a nice comment that the experts have been calling a top to the current bull run 'all the way up' - my view is that the rises are just the beginning and am toying with predicting a FTSE at 7000 or more by the end of 2011! Typically Bloomberg folk remarked that BP had had the greatest fall in one day than for the last whatever weeks, not pointing out that the price is back to where it was two days ago. Bet BP goes up 5-10 points tomorrow. 17.30: Main portfolio up £66 on the day which counters the Spread Betting account. Feel as if I have got off lucky overall, on the day. Wednesday 15th December Into the trough - everything gained yesterday should disappear, and more, today as the Far East fails with general lowering. 17.30: Early promise turned rotten, then minor recovery. Just hoping that something good might come out of MATRA and my other minnows. Getting some recovery this week on my spread betting. Now back to where I was two years ago! Which just goes to show. I think a new rule has to be never run two shares in the same sector. You will see that at the moment I am playing with BP and LLOY with the oil price informing my punt. Still around 92$ for January delivery and others are now speculating that it will go to over 100$ soon. Oil shares are the answer!  Overall down £146... perhaps tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Tuesday 14th December Marginal rise throughout the Far East following same here and in the USA bodes marginally here. A spot of good news from MATRA that all plans are moving forward margnally have produced a marginal rise of 0.5p. Even marginality, rise-wise, will make me happy. 14.00: Lift in market and main portfolio, AND spread betting... might pull some of last week's losses back, maybe as much as £500... sweating 17.30: In fact up £703 and an additional £100 on the spread betting account. Looking forward to tomorrow with the DOW currently up over 60 points. Maybe the FTSE will make 6000 by the end of the year as predicted, if not by the end of the week. Monday 13th December Despite knowing the risks, after last week, my mood is unusual trepidation. However the whole of the Far EAst was up marginally with the Nikkei gaining 81. The Dow close up slightly on Friday, though that was a long way away. Perhaps there will be some recovery this week. We shall, as usual, see. 19.00: A disappointing day but up £150. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Wk Beg 6th December: (FTSE: 5669 up 76 from last week; DOW: 11183 down 20; Main portfolio £89057 ( up on week £1461, Total fund: £93,057 (including £4,000 for any new purchase): ................................................................................................................ Friday 10th December Ended a disasterous week with a further loss of £403 - with various sales and additions I have lost £4,839 on the week. Thursday 9th December With the Far East up except China and India - all not a lot and the FTSE opening higher there may be some recovery for me today. But I am not too optimistic. There are a lot of buying opportunitites about but I am so knocked back from the failure of this week I am staying out for the moment.... should rise, but could fall... that's a safe analysis. 10.20: Sold 1000 Avocet Mining (Gold) for a profit of about £365 -  reason another drop -  but as soon as I sold, of course, went up... we shall see if a good move... happy to buy back on a fall of 20 12.55: This is developing into a very frustrating week as one sector counters another, one minnow goes up and another goes down, and nothing counters the big loss on Desire. Best laid plans of mice and men come to mind. 19.00:  Managed to gain £162 on the day, a small mercy. Wednesday 8th December: 18.00: Been away from the screen since before dawn. Main Portfolio has recovered but a loss of £119 is recorded because of a dodgy set of results from GAME (10,000 shares) and a fall of 5.5 which offset a rise of 8 on Desire... elsewhere one up and one down more or less on balance. Two days to go to recover £5K. I shall be lucky. Tuesday 7th December: 08.45: Thought the market is rising slightly, both th Down (-19) and the Far East have eased and this does not bode well for here. Most indices in Europe at this time are up a little but banks and the South Atlantic Oils continue to decline. I dick myself for not adding Antofagasta a year or so ago at half the price they are today - copper. This looks like being a bad week for me. 17.30: The day has held little hope for me with some ups and downs and the South Atlantic shares dipping a further 10%. Finished the day on the main portfolio down £115 Monday 6th December I definately heard way back that Obama thought that our David was lightweight, seems to have turned out the other way round; and definately read that Saudi Arabia would give flight clearance for an attack on Iran - a lot of the flap flap over those leaks is irrelevant, were originally common knowlege. N.Korea has gone quite under the threat of airstrikes, sub-prime is hardly mentioned, contagion has given way to thoughts that FIFA is awash with bribe takers, the snow is disappearaing and perhaps a super Christmas is on the way in the shops... maybe this will be a recovery week... I keep saying that and getting it wrong. Strewth - I've done it again. However the bulk of the Far East was down over night so that does not bode well. Thus the market will drop today! Hope I have that wrong. 8.45: Desire, once you have unravelled the monstrous torture of the English language enshrined in oil-speak announce they have struck salt water rather than oil and the stock has fallen a punishing almost 50% -  happy that I sold those 2000 last week. Might go back in. 08.58: Bt back 2000 Desire at 0.72 (sold at £1.08) about £550 cheaper... with luck might less later in the day at a modest profit. 12.30: The pull back for Desire has not yet taken place... but for Desire it would be an alright day... at the moment looks like a loss of the day of c. £3K 18.45: About the worst day ever with a loss of £4,719 -  largely due to Rockhopper (down 33p) and Desire (down 66p - 50% in a day). Hope tomorrow will see a pull back, but it could worsen. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wk Beg 29th November: (FTSE: 5669 down 64 from last week; DOW: 11183 down 20; Main portfolio £90331 ( up on week £1052, Total fund: £92,331 (including £2,000 for any new purchase): ................................................................................................................ Friday 3rd December The rise on the DOW was maintained to finish 108 points up (but off highest) and the Far East tagged along except for India and Singapore with marginal falls. I am hoping for another advance on the part of the FTSE today taking it above 5800 - with a hope still remaining that it will hit 6000 before the year is out. I doubt my prediction of £1 for LLOY will come true now, too many coin spins against it in Europe. But am I going to be super fortunate with the South Atlantic again, to say nothing of GAME? I note the fall in Nighthawk - drawing in their horns in North America, strategic review - always another way of saying we have got it horribly wrong. The share has gone down from 13 when I bought it to 8... wondering if I should not add because I think their main mining resource is sound. Maybe if it gets to 7... but have to be careful. 18.30: Down £74 on the day, so saved again by a broad spectrum. So I end the week being up £1,461. Thursday 2nd December Perhaps it is fever rather than contagion which now takes over as yesterday the FTSE closed up 2.1% at 114 up and the DOW followed with a 2.3% gain and 249 up - and the Far East got the message and was all in the blue, though modestly... with two days left in the week I may yet be up on the five days... but this is the very moment when things could turn right around, again. I sweat... 08.10: Sweet readers note that I sold 2000 Desire on the day before the day they struck oil! They just bounced up 50p -  which meant I was £1,000 not earned... settling a little. But if it is really an strike of significant proportions Desire will go anywhere towards £5 taking Rockhopper with it... also got rid of most of them. But all at a profit, and nobody made a loss making a profit. Damn it. 17.30: The slight recovery continued thought by the end of the day Desire only rose by 26.25, but GAME went my way with a 5p rise -  meaning over £500. Other members of the portfolio also rose including the banks so that I finished the day up £3,109 which means I am now up on the week by £1,535. The DOW is at 95 up so far and the FTSE finished up 125... just hope tomorrow delivers the goods too. Wednesday 1st December Weather and domestic circumstances and visitors caused me not to keep up with events yesterday. I made a defensive sale of 2000 Desire. This morning the markets look likes rallying. 08.20: Market is up about 40 and Far East also improved over night. But things are still in a bit of a mess. The Euro/Ireland/Portugal/Spain/Korean/revelation of secret things on Wiki - seem to be unhelpful to sentiment. But I think the investment steam is still there. How curious it is that money disappears by the billion - going to the place where nowhere is. I suppose that is scary - especially to people deeply in love with the stuff... like me. 15.00: The DOW is flickering around 150 up and the FTSE showed the way up over 110. There is a general recovery, especially in banks. Desire has not surged so it might have been a good idea selling yesterday - if it goes down, good move; if it goes up I have enough to benefit anyway, and a bit of cash flexibility. 17.30: To my delight I am £1,241 up on the day... jand £24 up on spread betting... and Desire has not even got back to the point I sold them at. Splendid. And two days to go on the week. Yes! Might get everything back. Tuesday 30th November Yesterday's debacle of a FTSE loss of 117 and the Dow down 39 (but way off its worst) and the Far East falling away overnight does not bode well for today. 08.40: There was a pull back from yesterday's losses at the opening - across Europe indeed. Desire is up another 12 - might recover something today. But things are very dodgy with growing concern about a potentional 200 billion problem in Spain. We seem to have been here before, many times. Later: lost £2,223 on the day; sold 2000 Dessire at £1.08 - 20% profit. This was due to sudfden drop. Earlier the share was up 16 points, making about 30 over two days then that went and so did yesterday's rise and I feared bad news was coming through so made a defensive sale. See above. Monday 29th November Despite the panics and threats of war last week the actual movement of the major indices was minimal. With the easing of the worrying we could see the surge I have been expecting in the coming week. I remain positioned to benefit from almost any turn of event, it seems. 09.00: The rodent in the woodpile this morning is Nighawk who have carried our a strategic review (always a threathening suggetion that thus far they have it badly wrong) which dropped 20% - toyed with buying more... extracting oil from shale in too many places... now going to focus on one. Other than that a drift upwards, marginal recovery in banks. 13.15: And so the day goes pear-shaped. Seniment:failure to convince with Ireland; threats still are plain in Korea - there is no opposition - just military juna potential, same as Myanma, but with nuclear warheads - and of course all that exposure of cables when people were telling the truth... how the hell did people get hold of that stuff...and probably a good thing they did. I still think it will ease into rises as the week progresses. 17.30: Today would have been a bad day. Sentiment again. Bloomberg suggested there was a low level of trade. Not so in UK banks which failed to improve - I shall add to my RBS tomorrow if there is another fall. The Irish solution is not believed, or at least the scribblers are casting doubts -  what else can they do. I was heading for a big loss, however something seems to be happening with Desire and the resulting rise of 16p placed the Main Portfolio with a fall of £582 on the day. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wk Beg 22nd November: (FTSE: 5732 down 64 from last week; DOW: 11203 up 1; Main portfolio £89279 ( up on week £1052, Total fund: £92,331 (including £2,000 for any new purchase): ................................................................................................................ Friday 26th November All the Far East indices I keep an eye on are down overnight, but to no great degree. I fancy the Korean business weighs and they have an eye on the poor sentiment apparently dogging Europe. I say apparently because the scribbling journalists have their eye on the story not the reality... that the Euro will survive stronger. We shall pass through these things until the next event dear boy, the next event. But with five weeks to go some of my predictions appear precarious and over optimistic. I shall change non of them until they are dated and then review. Five weeks is a VERY long time for the market, in much the same way that a week is a long time in Politics. 18.00: Surprisingly I finished £9 up on the day, and £931 on the week. This is very pleasing and due on the whole to the width of the portfolio. It has been a close run thing. If Korea gets really nasty next week anything can happen to the market. I think the Euro situation will cool. If Korea does too then I might have a good week together with the rest of the globe, but even Monday is a long way away. Thursday 25th November The Far East remains spooked by the Koreans, but the DOW closed up 150. Difficult to call the day. Lacklustre edging towards small rises, especially in banks and oils I think, and hope. 10.45: The initial promise of the day is not fulfilled. But trading is low. The Yanks are feasting today so no lead will come from there, or foolish panic. It will be a day of draft methinks. No action on my part. Shall go for a long lunch. 20.30: Back from lunch. Recovery brought me a rise of £540 on the day and a massive £4 on spread betting suggesting the existance of a deity. Wednesday 24th November Some recovery in the Far East despite the Dow ending down 145 and the FTSE down 100. 08.20: Some of yesterdays undeserved, but understandable losses, have been countered already with the FTSE up over 30. My thesis is that the present declines are false, the Euro will empower not disappear, and much of the recent falls are fear driven. I even wonder how much is due to shorting (hope they get burned). Bet I finish up on the week. You never know. One good day would do it, and a good day would come out of a chunk of good news, and sentiment would change. What a silly business it all is. 14.10: I have been watching the market as the day wore on seeing the FTSE rise, as I write, almost to 90, and the Dow is pounding on and currently is up 130, it has been higher. With a bit of luck much of yesterday's losses we regain today. 17.30: Up £1,332 on the day thus almost caught up with yesterday. Relief. Tuesday 23rd November 08.45: Though the DOW all but wiped its losses by the close ending 24 down the FTSE appears still mortified by the events of yesterday in Ireland and its cursedly badly managed banks. The market, as mentioned, hates uncertainty and the surveyers continue to get enough wrong to spook everything and everyone. So we are already down  50 points, the screen has gone largely red and reflect the falls in the Far East amid a number of closed markets. Hey ho. Started blue yesterday and went red; started red today... see what happens by 4.30. I have started late and am going for a long lunch so I shall find out this evening. Enjoy the day, I shall. 09.40: Not aware initially of the Korean incident which has caused a sentiment reaction in the Far East markets. I doubt this is significant. In Europe it is suggested the Euro will come out of the present difficulties stronger, not weaker. I would concur with this. 20.30: Returned to a loss of £1,467 -  more than I expected and this reflects the widespread decline, marking down, and typical sentiment rection to a minor border incident the other side of the world (save the poor folk killed and wounded on the word of a nutcase). The DOW continues to drop, currently down 157 and the FTSE closed down just a pip short of 100 -  so blowing away a lot of my fundamental predictions -  but there are six weeks left of the year. We shall see. Monday 22nd November Most of Far East up marginally except for Indonesia and Singapore with the Nikkei up a modest 92 matching the Dow closing slightly improved up 22. Should be a middling day today. Watch and wait. 08.30: So far so good -  slight blue all over, but trade does not seem to be very high. It is well known that 'the market' does not like uncertainty and the Irish Question seems to have been answered. Astonishingly we export more to Ireland than China and Russia put together... which is entirely disgraceful considering the pathetically small market which Ireland represents. 11.00:  My thoughts that it would be a middling day seem to be justified as the blues give way to the reds. The FTSE is up 25 but 20 off its best - with banks hitting at the woodpile, taking away the fuel. 12.30: The market drifts rather than middles with the FTSE around 90 off its best down 35 and falling... but I may be saved by Oil minnows again... MATRA up a little - I think there will be good news there soon. I shall take the dog for a work and hope to return not to a disaster. BANKS!  But maybe a buying opportunity. 16.15: Gone from bad to worse - from blue to red... FTSE down 60 and the DOW down 75 at this time. Not sure where the steer is coming from beyond the pathetic notion that the whole of the Euro zone is in trouble because of the flap flap about the Irish Banks - and of course those masters of the universe who have and do run RBS and LLOY have managed to keep themselves velcro-clutched with anything that smacks of the nasty, almost 200 millions shares in LLOY changing hands. But MARK! They changed hands. People are also buying - in fact almost half of the action is in buying at a dealing gap of about 5% between highs and lows. Come back Lord Young all is forgiven, I am SURE he was right, across the board. You watch! I will be buying banks tomorrow if this goes on. 17.00: So in the end the promising day ended with my being down £525 - thank you execrable bank executives. Wk Beg 15th November: (FTSE: 5796 down79 from last week; DOW: 11192 up 44; Main portfolio £89279 (including 400 cash for a purchase provided the following rise) up on week £702, Total fund: £91,279 (including £2,000 for any new purchase): ................................................................................................................ Friday 19th November: How's this for a prediction... big rise today maybe in excess of 100 points, no, not 'maybe'... I predict! Rationale: flap flap over sub-prime in USA - over; flap flap over British Banks, resolved; flap flap over China... nothing happened; flap flap over the Yen -  resolved; flap flap over Ireland (minute problem anyway - few aircraft carriers) being sorted; flap flap that the Euro will collapse (WHY?) and the EU will disintegrate (not yet, I think) - all largely media driven flap flap.... plus ca change.... it is not over until the fat lady sings - and even then it is not over... money is paper, based on the global actuality of global tangible assetts. Global are NOT going to go away. Even wars do not remove global assetts, they increase them or change them. So why can I not say -  this will be a BLUE Friday - it just feels it will be post earlier mark downs rather than actual selling.  At 4.30.... as usual... we shall know. But California in danger of defaulting to the tune of 25B I hear - 8th largest world economy, remember...  but would the Fed allow that? No doubt accomodations will be made. Fundamentally revenue is down for government, and costs are rising. 10% unemployment... means 90% employed... what was it that Mae West said when hearing the man was six foot eight inches tall - "Never mind about the six foot, let's concentrate on the eight inches." (On reflection not a good analogy -  but I hope you understand what I am trying to say.) Eventually states will have to spend their way out of trouble... remember that world crashes have happened before, and in a way the present situation is not as grave as historically earlier ones. Perhaps. But for today! Wait until 4.30. 07.45: Far East up, except for Hong Kong - flap flap about raising of interest rates (this is happening across the Far East - I have very very modest funds in Sri Lanka... 7+% for example... just for holidays). Futures for Europe universally up, even in Ireland (population rather less than half of London's - but flap flap never the less) 08.15: Mmm rather more red than I expected. -  a sort of lack of enthusiasm... waiting on Ireland I guess. Mine is such a diverse portfolio that Ireland is not relevant, but does hit elements, such as the banks. When Beneke has spoken things might happen. Having said that the red bits are quite small in size if not in number. Must get on with domestic things and let the market look after itself. 10.45: My over-weaning optimism is misplaced as red begins to take hold and the market dithers. 17.30: Well I certainly got that one wrong... however down a mere £15 on the day and I am up £1,052 on the week. Be nice to do that for ever. Thursday 18th November On Tuesday I began to think I had EVERYTHING wrong, but yesterday reassured me. There is so much talk, surrounding contagion and Ireland, and Portugal and Spain, but what does it amount to? On Bloomberg they were saying that China and Ireland were dominating thinking. Well - more people are born in China each hour than currently populate Ireland. Ireland is in a mess, they say (I don't think so) and China has a growth rate of 10% -  even on bad news. No! Everything is indicates to me BULL rather than BUST... but, you never know, I certainly don't. But I have my money where my mouth is. 08.10: India down a bit, rest of Far East up, with Nikkei showing a 2.06% rise of 201 against the DOW's slight fall of 15% does suggest a rise today, and as things open indeed much of my screen is blue. Fingers crossed. 18.30: The DOW up 177 as I write; FTSE closed up 76, Spread Betting up 11; Main Porfolio up £844... so all is not yet lost. Wednesday 17th Some signs of recovery. Some of the Far East markets closed today... so no real guide and the DOW finally finished yesterday down 178 which was above its worst. As usuall 4.30 is the witching hour of truth. 17.30: On-line and PC problems today. But was able to watch the recovery. It appears that yesterday was the worst drop in four months. I thought the activity lacked rationality and there has been some recovery today. My Main Portfolio is up £1,600 and with Monday's £900 I am now down £200 on the week with two days to go on what looks like a rising market. Pays to remain calm. Tuesday 16th November Dow finished up 9 but very much down on its best. The Far East is down save for Singapore. The openings - I am a little late this morning -  is generally red across the board. News for MATRA is not good - just a delay on a rig which is being borrowed from the giant Russian Oil Group cannot be released for a few days... so yesterday's gain disappeared. But the announcement does not have a sense of concern. However, though the day is opening lower it showed as a great red strip on my candles chart and that usually means mark down rather than activity. Now since the mark down comes from experts, and my thesis is that they usually get it wrong I would not be surprised if the day finishes well. One thing is certain - we shall know by 4.30 this afternoon. 10.50: The slight rout continues... should lose all yesterday's gain and a bit more... but the day is young. Nothing calls for a purchase or a sale... the Irish Question lurks in the background, hitting banks... and oil has dropped a little, so the big oil companies are off. But everyone seems to be waiting and it looks like there is pretty thin trading, supporting my view that the initial markdown is not going to be maintained. Yet no trend is established. 16.15: Well the trend became clear -  down. It is all stupid... trouble with the Irish banks -  and a gold mine's shares in Egypt drifts down. There has been a steady two way trade across the board with a leaning to the red. I have watched in despair at each upturn got countered with a greater downturn. I am scared there may be a major fall due. Most of what I will lose today I made yesterday. It will not be my worst day but it is a disappointment. The general fall in oil and minerals has not helped either. I am just going to stick to my guns. Treat this as an anomoly... but the experts definately got it right at the opening... now I guess they are looking for a buying back in later in the week... or maybe indeed we are in for a losing of several hundred FTSE points -  currently down 120! and DOW 122. 19.39: Down £2,300 on the day. DOW down a filthy 176 as I write, FTSE ended down 138 -  worse than the DOW in % terms. Looking for a rope or a high place. Monday 15th November Screen largely red at the start reflecting dither on the DOW and in the Far East. But MATRA (100K held) have moved up 13% at the start... something happening there perhaps. Premier Oil bounced 5% too - so minnows are the great blue hope today or a false dawn... Premier is not exactly a minnow but I only have a few of them. Nice start to the week it seems. 18.00: Up £900 on the day. Something seems to be happening with MATRA indeed with a lot of buying going on. A spot of good news and it could fly tomorrow.  Premier shot up 230 at one point and closed 62 up - all in all the eclectic portfolio prospered. FTSE closed up 23 and the DOW is up 74 as I right and rising by the looks of it. Tomorrow could be magical. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Wk Beg 1st November: (FTSE: 5875 up 134 from last week; DOW: 11158 down 14; Main portfolio £88577 (plus £2,5000 cash, from which a purchase provided the following rise) up on week £6,027, including £2,000 for new purchase): Total fund: £91,077 ................................................................................................................ Friday 12th November 10.40: On Virgin train speeding and swaying to Manchesster - took 15 minutes to log on as I kept missing the keys with the swaying for the password then came a tunnel. 10.50 Lost connection another 10 minutes of logging in... basically this is a red screen day which will cost me close to £2,000 by the end of the day by the looks of it. But you never know - they might catch the nasty students and cheer everyone up. Those idiot lecturers who speed of valid targets should take notice of the rule of law which allows them to keep their jobs. 11.20: Good heavens the market seems to be pulling back - oil? Should hit 90$ soon... heading towards my basic prediction and that will impact on oil shares, and I have some! 11.40: Oh good grief - it's gone back again. Waves don't you know! Next day: to my astonishment actually up £79 on the day. Thursday 11th November The perceived turnabout on the DOW continued so that yesterday it ended up 10 points - a movemnet of almost 100 points from its earlier bottom. Is this in fact evidence of the steam which I think is present throughout the markets signalling this beginning of a bear market I am talking about. This is not clutching at straws. I seriously think we are in for something good. 09.00: Played a war game until 2 in the morning and over slept. And came to another red screen morning. 09.05: With RBS down to just over 40 added a 1000.at 0.404 20.00: Domesticity took me away from the PC. Closed up £236 on the main portfolio... got my costs back on the RBS purchase. Hope the declines of the week will be countered tomorrow. NOTE: Tomorrow I am tied up and will not add anything until around 11.00. Wednesday 10th November Since I shall be out most of today the management of the portfolio will be in the hands of one of the representatives of fate. The Dow weakened as yesterday wore on and the Far East closed lower so, even though my portfolio has behaved well of late I fear I shall return this evening somewhat poorer. 08.25: Dow weakened 60, the Far East was down save for China and Japan (Nikkei up1.4% 130). My screen is mixed and frankly it is not as bad as I expected. The nice thing on the horizon is that the folk on Bloomberg are talking the market down and that means only one thing: it will rise. There was a Bloombery charming Chinese lady giving a mini lecture/breifing on the British Economy and she really did more or less say that things will improve or get worse or stay the same. I agree. 18.00: Whilst away the FTSE went down with a dip at the end to make sure of a good 58 down. At this time the Dow is down just 38 which is up about 50 better than the worst, but is THAT over. We shall see. I am down on the day £1,001 - as everything shaves off a little. It was half expected. Tuesday 9th November Dow went down during the day but from around their midday did not move from the low 40s then closed down 37. Wonder if this is an encouraging sign. Far East down slightly everywhere except China. Looking to falls today. Did not realise that Turkey has a growth rate of 10% but an unemployment rate of 10%... no problems with the bank. They'd best stay out of Europe for their sake rather than ours. Not! 10.10: Well got it wrong yesterday, thought it would go up, thought it would go down today...wrong again... mind you predictions are ephemeral... I still made money yesterday because of the platform of eclectic choices I sit on. And today my personal screen is delightfully blue. Even bad weather in the South Atlantic has not put of the punters for Desire and Rockhopper... one more decent strike and I shall regret selling out of Rockhopper 90%, and  Avocet and Centamin are rising on the back of gold and the increases in production. Might well be a good day...mmm should not have typed that. Just need Game to deliver now... Call of Duty out today - so that might help setiment. It is all to do with sentiment, which is even more vapourous than predictions. Wide portfolios are the answer. 13.15: Market stuck up at mid 40s. Screen maintains a profitable blue and a broker has pushed both Desire and Rockhopper, both up, and my gold mines continue to rise. Could be a comfortable day, but the DOW opens in due course something nasty will come out of it and spoil the party. 18.30: Again the eclecticity of my portfolio comes to my aid with the gold and oil minnows to the fore and I end the day up £1,135, FTSE closed up DOW ditheringly down 24. Bit of good news tomorrow and anything might happen northwards. Monday 8th November DOW closed up a tiny 9.24 on Friday, which is now history, but the entire Far East was marginally up across the board. Bloomberg this morning suggesting futures across Europe are down with banks dropping. I think there will be a rise in the FTSE as the day goes by. Let battle commense and see if I am right. 18.00: Up £265 on the day. Largely thanks to Desire again -  up 125; Avocet also advanced 9 which helped. The rest of the screen is red. I am lucky Banks messed me up again. Quite a lot of trade in them too which is scary. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Wk Beg 1st November: (FTSE: 5741 down 66; DOW: 11158 up 96; Main portfolio £82550 (plus £4,5000 cash, from which a purchase provided the following rise) up on week £1384, effectively a standstill) ............................................................................................................................................. Friday 5th November 07.45:  With the FTSE up 113 (had been over 120) yesterday and the DOW closing  up 220 - today could be a brilliant day. The Far East has moved up accross the board...  RBS provide Q3 today and if they are digested as outstanding -  remember two years ago they were £2.50 and in 2007 over £6 and I bought them last year at 10p!!! - then we may see a big lift to LLOY and RBS on my spread betting. Though I fancy there will be profit taking around midday if the whole market shifts up in the morning. Will have to watch for that, even as I suggested at the close yesterday.. 09.15: RBS disappointed by still managing to mislay 1.3 billion during Q3 so the dawn promise is not fulfilled and the main portfolio will not deliver a magical result today... I estimate I was about £2,000 up at the open but within an hour this has drifted away as the market has fallen off despite leads from the DOW and the Nikkei. But as Trichet just said - every national economy is different. Very profound. Really! That is worth a whole day of his salary. 10.30: Decline continues, but currently off bottom. Minnows may be coming to my rescue... same with Desire...  perhaps there is also an element of profit taking from yesterday going on... which might cause a surgette at the close of the day, troughs and waves. You will have noticed that I tend to live in hope, each day. I should be a Christian. 11.00: Still cannot fathom why there is a markdown/selloff today. Not justified. Sentiment. Hate sentiment. 12.45: As ever the survey folk were way out on non-farm payrolls in USA - much better than expected - and overall unemployment stands at about 9.3%. Market beginning to strengthen. But I still got the day way out wrong, espcially on banks. But what's in a day? Profit! Profit made or losses suffered. I think I shall still be in profit at the end of the day -  but the world could end before the sun goes down. We just do not know. 18.00: Could have been worse: up £830 on the day. Real let-down from the banks. Everything else up by dribs abd drabs nice rise of16 from Avocet (gold mining) should have bought more. Now I shall get on with the weekend. Thursday 4th November Dow finished up 26 and Nikkei put on188 (2.2%); rest of Far East also positive, with the exception of Singapore, typically they were up 1.5%.  This is promising for the day. 08.10: With the exception of GAME and MAX (both down c.1.5% - fractional) the entire screen is blue - if this carries on for the rest of the day you are reading the blog/site of a happy bunny. 10.30: Lot of excitement over the appt of a handsome new CEO to LLOY with his salary in part determined by the share price going above 100 - which suits my predictions. FTSE keeps snapping at a rise of 100 then falling back, but only GAME remains red on my screen. Promising. 17.30: With the FTSE up 113 (had been over 120) and the DOW at 190 as I write... tomorrow could be a brilliant day and a good end to the week if the Far East follows through. Though I fancy there will be profit taking around midday. Will have to watch for that. The minnows did deliver after all too - Kenmare was up 2 (£200) and so was MAX (£200) and even Matra put on 0.2 (£200) - altogether, finished the day up £1,743 Wednesday 3rd November Dow finished yesterday up 60, but the Far East is down across the board, except for Singapore, the FTSE finished below its highs but I still thinkg the promise is a general but slight rise today. I am hoping that the banks will recover. I think RBS reports on Friday. The sentiment runs against the banks for want of figures. I am also optimistic for my minnows (MATRA, Nighthawk, Kenmare, MAX) - if they get going and the South Atlantic also drive on! Could be a good day, or a frustrating one, which is a very good prediction from the point of view of it being fulfilled. 11.30: Despite earlier promises market and portfolio is drifting. Some rise in Desire is dissipating. Might not look good by the end of the day. I think there is some digesting of the the USA political situation... how can Obama have made such a pig's foot of it all... all that power, and now he is still just coming out with that Obama delivery tone of voice which middle America has now ceased to trust. Such promise - but now shown to be sound and fury amounting to nothing. 15.45: Early morning's promised is be erroded by the minute.... should end with a loss. 17.30: Main portfolio down £359 - totally betrayed by the minnows - but not as bad as I thought it would be. FTSE closed down 8.46 and the Dow has gone to 14 down as I write. Ominous, but maybe not as bad as it could be. Tuesday 2nd November With the Dow and Far East making minor movements today may be another frustrating day of market indecision, building to a frustrating week of no major direction. Results from the banks this week may change this... 'may' has crept in to my usually more determined predictions. But that is how the market is as far as I can see. 09.45: After careful research (which means I've blundered) I bought 10,000 Kenmare Resources at 0.2055. They have a Titanium (and other minerals) mine in Mozambique. They just flooded a village and a child is missing, but it looks as if the matter is dealt with as best as it can be. The flood is claimed to be non-toxic unlike the Hungarian and BP disasters. 15.45: The market is stabilising upwards and most of my holdings are up a little bit with special reference to the South Atlantic pair. Quite why they have risen on essentially poor news from Desire I do not know - another abandoned well. Only the banks have let me down - which in itself is a surprise for the noises from LLOY were good... perhaps the lack of concrete figures is not good for sentiment. Rather fancy they will bounce tomorrow. By the looks of it I should be £1,000 or more up on the day. But you can never tell! 18.00: In fact up £1,700 on the day which does help a lot. However only have about £2,000 earmarked for further deployment. Must be very careful. Monday 1st November With the Far East down with the exception of China and the Dow up on Friday a miserable 4.5 I think we are in for a flat day today at best. I shall wait on the side lines in hope. 08.05: Surprisingly - so it will not last - my portfolio went blue or unchanged. 14.25: Markets seem to be on the rise... what will the DOW do... will know very soon! Looks like a rise. 18.15: The good start dissipated and I ended on the main portfolio ~£8 down. The DOW began with a burst to over 100 up which has also dropped to 40 as I write, FTSE closed up 19... rather fancy tomorrow might be a good day if the Far East zooms... --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wk Beg 25th October: (FTSE: 5741 up 38; DOW: 11158 up 96; Main portfolio £81166 (plus £6,000 cash) up on week £1388) A repeat of the previous week but not at bad, a recovery in the South Atlantic helped. This is my mantra (as opposed to MATRA): We MUST be in for that major rally soon. Even so for the last three weeks the two indices of FTSE and DOW have clicked up a rachet each, weekly. We shall see if this continues. .......................................................................................................................................... Friday 29th October Except for China the whole of the Far EAst is down (India closed I think) with the Nikkei losing 163 - all suggesting we do the same. Yet the DOW was stronger at the close than earlier in the day closing a mere 12 down. My screen is mixred yet Desire have put on a third of yesterdays debacle -  up 10... maybe I will end up in the blue today. 18.00: A lacklustre day. I am fed up with the Directors of Desire and Rockhopper making so much for themselves with no a penny of earned income for the companies. But then -  I would do the same thing. Up £583 on the day, largely from a slight rise in Desire. Thursday 28th October Far East mixed, closed, with Nikkei down just 21. DOW closed down 43 which was a 100 less than earlier losses. Lots of blue on the opening screen, but Desire and Rockhopper have retreated on, I suppose, profit taking. Am, as ever, optimistic for the day. 10.00: Market sliding, but still up, my screen getting redder... probably lose some of yesterdays gains by the end of the day. 11.30: Note from Desire that they are in the process of pulling out the latest drill -  sounds like a Bishop and Actress story - they add that they know nothing regarding recent speculation of a takeover of the company. Hence, no doubt, the fall today - plus some profit taking for sure. But the share is bouncing about and might end in the blue after all today... I wait. 20.00: Been out all day and come back to find I was down £2,193. Wish I had not squandered money on extra chips. Almost all of this loss is the fallback of Desire -  over 26p 23% - and this may be a reflection of the dismissal of bid rumours. Wait until the next rumour. Denial of rumours is a sure sight of the existance of actuality. Wednesday 27th October: I was daring to predict a big rally today, but movements elsewhere are marginal so I think it will be drift again. But I remain convinced that steam is building. 10.30: Good news on contractual arrangements have shifted both Desire and Rockhopper this morning and should provide me with about a £2,000 rise on the day going some way to alleviating the losses of the last two weeks. Banks also advance. Hurrah! 14.30: Some exciting movements with Desire Rockhopper...at one point I was up a LOT but there has been some consolidation. 16.10: The forward movement has gained a little more and on the face of it could be up £3K on the day at this rate, because MAX has moved too, and the banks. The fallers will be outranked. 16.20: This shows the advantage of having an eclectic portfolio. The DOW at this moment is 120 down and the FTSE 60 down, and many of my shares are down, but the counter mentioned above saves the day. Perhaps tomorrow the situation will be reversed, but at least I am getting breather against the many days of falls over the last few weeks. 17.30: Finished with the main portfolio up £3,285 on the day. This is very pleasing seeing that the FTSE lost 61 points. I have a sense, once more, that there will be other rises tomorrow, and the South Atlantic shares were moving up as the market closed so should be fun there too. Out for lunch most of the day tomorrow so hands off will be the order of the day and I always do better when I do not interfer. Tuesday 26th October: You live and learn: could not get started this morning because the computer would not accept the letter 'm' as part of my password. Chased the problem on the net and discovered I had accidentally put the 'number's lock' key to 'on'. A bad day is rapidly becoming a worse week. Banks and the South Atlantic continue to decline -  and at 9.30 figures are out on the British Economy which the survey suggests will not be good. Now if my theory is that the surveyors always getting it wrong then either the figures will be not so bad, or they will be worse. The pound is falling too... could be that will be a blessing in disguise for balance of trade. I think I am going shopping to get away from it all, and maybe coffee... and watch the world go by. 14.00: As I said the pundits got it wrong again and the GDP for the UK was better than thought, not that the market came alive. Been approached re:Kenmare Resources (http://www.kenmareresources.com/) who are digging for Titanium in Mozambique. Looks interesting at less than 20p a share with great potential, except they have flooded a local village, probably killed a little girl and have 15 days of reserve excavations left before they are in danger of failing contracts unless they start operations again... falls into the bracket that if a thing is too good to be true, it usually is. Put on 'Watch') 18.00: Down £373 on the day. I am prepared to predict a major rally tomorrow. Monday 25th October: All of Far East up over night with the exception of the Nikkei down 25. 08.30: The FTSE has risen by this point 50 points. There is a lot of blue on the screen, but not my stuff. South Atlantic shares down and the banks taking a hit... damn my spread betting. 09.30: I notice that Nighthawk is coming off somewhat - down almost 3 (to 12.5) cf with when I first noticed them and thought them a good buy. On the verge of buying. 09.46: Bought 10,000 Nighthawk (HAWK) at .1309 10.30: Despite a report from MATRA indicating they are sitting on reserves worth £40million the price of the share has dropped a little. Always bemused when bad news is good news and vice versa. Mind you there are also remarks regarding continuing difficulties over wells 12 and 13 and reading between the lines causes goose pimples - not sure if they are fear or greed driven, since the wording of the reports and letters on the subject are hard to fathom. This is always the case with oil people -  they speak another language, completely lacking in grammar and full of words not in the dictionary or words twisted to mean something they were not intended to mean. 14.00: No sense of direction in the market though the FTSE remains up. Glad I am out of Rockhopper at the moment... quite volotile. My minnows are up and down. I am quite excited when I review the portfolio for a major upwards move in the market will do me well. I now switch into masterly inactivity mode. Probably the most sensible thing to do. 16.45: Market's closed thank God. Must have been punished today... will find out in an hour... I think it might be about £1,500 down... some respite from the width of the portfolio, but with both South Atlantic and Banks down the drain it is going to smart. Even the Nighthawk purchase has gone against me... 17.46: In fact down £1292 and a damned down £136 on spread betting. Not one of my best days. Tomorrow is another day. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wk Beg 18th October: (FTSE: 5703 up 46; DOW: 11062 up 54; Main portfolio £79778 (plus £6,000 cash) down £8,778) Rotten week last week for all to see. But I have moved about 15% of money from oils (Rockhopper and Desire)  and tech (ARM)  into High Street (GAME) and Gold (Avocet and Centamin Egypt) and Gas (Centrica). This will also ensure a dividend of about £1,000 a year. Strategic adjustment. We MUST be in for that major rally soon. My losses are entirely due to Desire and Rockhopper's oil bubbles deflating. My broad portfolio is stronger than before. The indices are creeping up despite personal setbacks. I have faith in stores represented in my portfolio by Tesco, Game, and Dixons. My real potential remains in Oil minnows with holdings in MATRA and Max Petroleum (update Tuesday -  encouraging news on new well pushed the share up 50% at one point). There is always a problem with Russian political interference, but at least both of these operators are on land. So let battle begin, again. AND of course this week is publication/declaration of the 'spending review' which could drive the market any way, but could strengthen the pound and relatively weaken oil and gold on our markets. New share to watch: Nighthawk Energy Ltd ................................................................................................................................. Friday 22nd October Another watching brief... let's hope it is not a black Friday. With the Far East slightly up with the exception of Hong Kong and the Nikkei up 50 and the DOW closing up 38 -  there are prospects of our market rising today, or falling, or staying where it is. At least I shall ge that right. Thursday 21st October DOW up a neat 125 the Far East dithered around nothing... so... maybe the chewing on the cuts might push things down, on the other hand they may be seen not as bad as they could be. Will the people take to the streets like the French yobs? The yobs might. That will not do the market any good. But everything is falling well short of a black swan event... so perhaps we will start the rise I have been predicting for six weeks. 17.30: An up and down day, with the FTSE ending up 29ish, and at this time the DOW hitting the 50s. Main Portfolio though is down £353 -  which could have been worse. Desire was the problem today. Was phoned again by a firm trying to get me into commodities direct, and land... but declined. They are very persistent and lovely but I am fixed in my ways and if I am going to lose money I would rather do it with the stock market. Wednesday 20th October With the whole of the Far East down over 1% and the Nikkei following the Dow's fall of 165 with a fall all of its own of a57 it is hardly rocket science to suggest falls here too. I shall stand back and watch, hoping that my more balanced portfolio will save the day and knowing that in the final analysis we were better prepared to defend the county in 1066 than we are now, and we all know what happened then. 15.15: Despite the Spending Cuts bla-bla - why not cut wasteful Health and in particular very very wasteful Education as well? - which will leave the country as a fourth rate military power, incapable of self defence - the market has moved only slightly in both directions -  even though the DOW has ploughed up to 70 plus up as I write. I may be up or down at the end of the day.  But I envisage, the bad news out of the way, there will be the proving of the the fact that we are at the beginning of a long bull market. 17.00: Ended the day up a modest £287 Tuesday 19th October Though the Far East and Dow finished on the up side our market is probably under the promisory gloom of the spending review announcements. But there are sparks of hope in my gold mines this morning. Hard to see how the market is going to go, but I think there will be a further modest rise by the end of the day -  now there's a brave prediction. 10.30: Ha ha! Encouraging news from MAX Petroleum regarding their latest well popped the share up 40%... maybe I got this one right. 13.15: Painful reversal taking place... removing a good gain on the day... hopefully MAX will save the day. I'm going out for a long lunch and will check things out this evening. Maybe the USA market will keep the rises going. Maybe not. Who knows? Absolutely nobody: and that's the truth. 19.00: Despite a big reversal -  US housing starts way below the survey -  those bloody stupid surveys -  I endced just £18 down -  thanks to a rise of 20 on Max (up 81%) and to think I almost doubled my holding before I went to lunch then thought better of it. Damn. Monday 18th October: Not sure where the market will go. I am suspecting a fall, followed, later in the day or week a rally... Only 1000 Rockhopper left, but ab out 7000 Desire, with 2000 post major falls prior to my selling 2000.  I have £6,000 in cash to enter with. But I think I am going to watch and wait because of inner uncertainty today. 11.00: Well, the South Atlantic lot are making a come back with Rockhopper up 46 and Desire up 18 -  representing about a £2,000 rise for me. Was I right clearing out of Rockhopper... nobody ever made a loss making a profit... but rings a bit hollow. But Oils are letting me down today. 14.00: My indestructable optimism returns as the market stays in the blue - now if this is picked up in the USA we shall see a surge in the late afternoon. I have a long way to go to wipe the defeats of last week. But maybe THIS is the week. Banks have moved up a bit and my two important oil minnows Matra and Max have not worsened... I would love to see them steam. 19.00: Up £2,405 on the day... but a long way to go. My strategic moves have not yet awoken, what has happened is the South Atlantic have come back Rockhopper rising 43 and Desire 17, and ARM followed through up 11. FTSE and DOW up on the day. Tomorrow may be promising. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wk Beg 11th October: (FTSE: 5657 up 55; DOW: 11006 up 140; Main portfolio £88557 (plus £6,000 cash) down £1,943) My general play in Banks last week was a serious setback to my morale... plus a loss of £2,000 on my main portfolio. I missed sound buying opportunities (especially Imagination). I simply cannot call the coming week. Because, despite a slight rise in both indices, there was a retreat across many stocks I am rather looking for a stronger advance. The DOW finished up on Friday. If the market rises I will do fine, if it falls I do have a little liquidity to go back in. It is very much a wait and see situation. The overall trend though, is up. Whilst Oil and Gold is also up this is based on the effect of a declining dollar - a sort of false golden dawn. But Christmas is coming and I think the next two months will be worth at least 400 points on each indices. That should take my portfolio without further intervention above the 100K mark. Additional general remark -  Tuesday PM: I am looking for something... something which will rise rapidly and perhaps have safey and a good yield... recovery. Just one leaps to mind like a shooting star : GAME. I have a modest 5000 -  should I double it. Yield is topping 8; there are a number of new PC and PS3 games coming through; Christmas - GAME means a stake in high tech and the High Street. Warming to this one. 14.15 Tuesday: Done that see below. Friday 15th October -  a black Friday??? Went to lunch yesterday and did not get back until 9 in the evening so missed the disaster which took place. Probably those wretched employment figures from the USA -  is Obama going to prove to be the worse windbag President of the US ever? Full of good intentions but no delivery. Surely it is not that difficult to perform miracles in the White House. I have yet to make some share adjustments to the Main Portfolio which might lift things -  I await some contact notes. Far East down across the board, except China. Today will be grim methinks. 08.49: Worse than grim with a drop of 40- way over 30%- on Desire. I put in an immediate BUY and hit a traffic jam so that I finally got my order for 2000 at 84. - about 10 points worse. It is absolutely clear that the initial drop was a mark down when yet another well failed to deliver. But I remain optimistic as to the strategic worth of oil ventures in the South Atlantic. (remember I sold 1000 Desire a few days ago at £1.33 and a week ago at 1.55) 14.00: Havings watched my riches turned to rags in the local area of the South Atlantic, and having added to Desire, which went down further... see above... I thought if they go down again early next week, especiall Rockhopper I am further hit. So I sold a further 1000 Rockhopper at 300. Thus if they go down, I got out in time, if they go up I still gain with the extra Desire. Well, seems a good idea, and again I have £6,000 in cash to take advantage of opportunities next week. I fear I must be down £5K today... will know later. It has been a very nasty week for me. 16.30: Nothing going right is entirely optimistic this day and this week.  Must have lost 10K on the week... yet maybe the portfolio is the stronger for it and I have 6K in hand. I will give the worst in a couple of hours time. But it is bad. 17.30: Main Portfolio down £2,800 on the day. Will work out the weekly totals for the lead comments for next week in due course... but it is bad. Never mind... it has been good. And it will be good again, for my strategy has given good service thus far. Above all I am showing the things can go down as well as up.... something which escapes people. Thursday 14th October With the Dow closing up 75 and the Far East up with the modest exception of China down in the Far East and the Nikkei up 180 a rise in the FTSE certainly at the opening is a probable event. 09.41: The curse of the banks: RBS being sued for a billion or more in a US court -  won't happen; LLOY overleading thousands of staff - saving millions... so why do they drop! Largely mark down. Time to buy RBS? Blown my spread betting out of the water though. Over the last couple of weeks I have shifted about 20% of my money from OILS and ARM into Gold Mines and GAME and Centrica. This might be a strategic good one. Watching RBS After hours: The route continues and I am down £2,000 on the main portfolio and 146 on spread betting. I am looking for a high place from which to leap... or perhaps a buying opportunity. I think the stupid banks are promising. Wednesday 13th October The way things are going a 13th of any day is not good news. However, yesterday the Dow finally finished in marginally positive territory and the Far East has improved. Perhaps we shall do better today. A nice rise in GAME would be nice, now that I have 10,000... and I still look to OILS to save my bacon... but we shall see. I remain convinced that we are in the beginning of a long BULL market. The Far East made general progress and the FTSE is chugging along and all should be well but for a bloody gobbdigook technical bloat item from Rockhopper which boils down to: find not as good as we thought, we want a lot of money to continue and will be calling on shareholders. Shares plunged 80 (16%) which makes my recent sale a masterstroke. Desire followed off about 8 and all in all that knocks at least £2,000 off my portfolio. But it would have been worse. On top of this Imagination... which I could have got at about 350 has jumped to 425 - definately the one that got away. Everything is my fault. But the market is rising. Damned banks though are flailing about going nowhere. I am going to have breakfast, and I have a cold, and my back aches. I doubt there is a God. 09.27: Taken the plunge and bought 1000 Avocet (Gold Mining) at 182; now have £4,000 in cash funds 12.00: Avocet up 4 already so costs covered, and Rockhopper down close to 70 making my sale earlier in the week even more fortuitous, especially as Avocet is the beneficiary. Meanwhile ARM is recovering after my sale, but the money now in GAME (up 3) compensates. Small victories. 14.30: Today is going to be a very punishing game, slightly skewed as all of my changed positions are not yet recorded on my portfolio... so it will be less than shown at the end of the day... a loss of £3K on the Main Portfolio is expected. The bulk of this will be the fall in Rockhopper and Desire... which, after all, put me where I am a month ago. A correction was long over-due -  fortunately I have been selling so will maintain the bulk of my earlier victories. It is the campaign, the war, not the battle which triumphs in the end. 15.25: Sold a further 1000 Desire at 133. They have also now fallen 30p... I think I may be down £4,000 on the day... bit of a blow. If the fall of the South Atlantic shares continues I will be able to go back in, if they rise, I will still, on that share have made about 1000% profit, and have increased my liquidity back to £5K. Tomorrow will reveal whether this was a mistake. 17.35: Greatly relieved to be down somewhat under £3,000 on the day. The FTSE advanced, the DOW at this time is up 100. I have been hit by Banks and the South Atlantic and Oil Minnows, but the strategy for further diversification seems to be sound, protecting me from either excessive gains or losses, though today is a bitchette. Hints of that Bull Market are in the air, I feel it in my water. All I need is fire and and some down to earth and I am laughing all the way to the brokers. Tuesday 12 October We can expect declines today, the Dow did not hold gains finishing a miserable 3 points up and the Nikkei lost 200 - the rest of the Far East was mixed but there is a down trend. Maybe 50 points lost today. But there may be some good news which will change that. Every day is an adventure. 08.35: A mixed decline is taking place... have a funny feeling there will be a reverse later in the day. There is an awful lot of interesting plays out there and there has to be a LOT of cash lurking ready to go in with the expectation of a rise towards Christmas (one of the givens), people in the know (whoever they are) may see today and days similar as opportunities to go in, or go back in post profit taking last week. If the market does not decline 50 we may find ourselves in northern seas by the end of the day. (notice the weasle word 'may') 09.25: With everyone flapping over the possibility of increased inflation (due to weak pound largely - and VAT size to come) market is down 70 so I think I have to revise back to a general and wide fall today. Damn... but if inflation news is good... well, we shall know soon enough. And I am doing nothing anyway. 14.08: Gone for selling 1000 ARM about 375 and buying GAME about 5000 at about 70 17.45: The day went bad -  £1,040 (so up about £400 on the week -  terrible) down on the day. But sensed a strengthening in the market, perhaps tomorrow will haul me back into the wind. Monday 11th October The usual pattern of a modest general rise in the Far East to be an arbinger for a rise here, which is how it is with the FTSE up around 20 points. 12.30: Looks like the strengthening of Oil, despite the dollar misguide, is being reflected in Oil shares. Shame I sold Rockhopper at 1000% profit (yes!) for they are 22 (5%) up on the morning. I just wish MATRA would get moving. 17.45: Main portfolio up £1,468 -  so can't be too bad... need over £2,000 on the week to make up for last week! It is the damned banks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wk Beg 4th October: (FTSE: 5592 down 6; DOW: 10866 up 6; Main portfolio 96,500 down £655 with additional £450 added in MAX - so down about £1,000) I think oils to watch next week across the sector, stores to. I have to admit I was wrong on Laura Ashley who appear to be recovering. Something going on with MATRA who gained around 30% on the week... could move next week on good news. Last week market were not good and were not recting to the 'steam' I feel is there pushing at the moment positively, instead silly pieces of indifferent news caused mark downs, which in the end were not followed by the market. I sense, still, a rise is on the way. Maybe this week. Desire now has control of the lone rig in the South Atlantic with a spud completed (breaking surface of earth) and there is a 30 or so day wait for news. Temptations to sell more Rockhopper and Desire to be resisted... doubt I shall be able to resist on further rises. Let's see what happens. Friday 8th October A couple of weeks ago there were unrelenting improvements... now the trough is swilling. Again Far East has fallen with the Nikkei down almost 100. I expect a much lower opening. But I know that the more it goes down the more it will rise and I am well place. Imagination is a share that got away. I had good intelligence on this share but did not trust the source. I shall take more notice next time. Though the game is not yet over. I must be several thousand down on the week, but did pull £6K out at the beginning of the week and thus have some flexibility. Waiting game. Gold and Oil continue to rise. Should I get some Avocet, or have I missed the boat again? 12.15: I hate this week. 18.00: Finished the day up £142, but SB down £50 Bad day, bad week, bad moves - but DOW up 50 at the moment... maybe next week there will be some recovery. At the moment the gloom mongers are being more effective than common sense. Thursday 7th October Delayed by an hour getting to my PC only to find red all over the place. The Far East would have predicted a poor opening, and so it was. All progress on SB is wiped and oh my God  - I should have gone in to Imagination. They have bounced up and finally over taken ARM. Going in now will only, through dark forces, bring the price down. Not going in will send the price up. Ahhhhh. And of course Avocet is up and I did not go in there. And banks, bloody banks -  what is the matter with the damned banks. GLOOM! Down £601 on the day Wednesday 6th October Far East blue with 177 up on Nikkei and almsot 200 on the DOW though off highs (warning? profit taking?). All suggest strong opening. I continue to watch GAME, Avocet, Centamin, in fact a whole tranche because I have about £7,000 to reinvest. Might be a good idea to see what happens because if the market rises, I still make money, and if it falls it might fall further. Altogether, rather pleased with myself. 08.49: Bloomberg seems surprised there is a rally in the Far East and another in Europe - been predicting this for weeks... but it is not the rally I am looking for... it is about a quarter of the steam which is there. I wait. Meanwhile, were I to buy 5,000 GAME and double my holding I would have a yield income of over £500 a year. Tempting with Christmas coming... 10.15: Gone into serious dither mode. Clearly a minor rally in place. Should have bought Imagination yesterday... but did not... should have done a lot of things today but did not. But sometimes no action is right action with the passage of time. Anyway - I am definately in profit on the day by the looks of it and nobody made a loss making a profit. Comforting. 13.15: This slight rally is holding, I nervously do nothing. If the DOW shoots up I have missed some opportunities. Rockhopper all over the place but well below what I sold at yesterday... 16.10: The DOW has not delivered and profits have probably gone. Strong improvement on the SB side has also dissipated. Appears I am right not to have trusted this rally. I am now looking for a retreat and have cash ready to take advantage... Ended day: Main Portfolio down £70 and SB up £20... way off earlier progress. Tuesday 5th October Delayed access to the computer caught me over an hour into trading. The Far East was indicative of a rise and so it has happened. I have shares in Milwall... and they are up by over eight million %. I am either a billionaire or there is a decimal point having a nervous breakdown. 09.45: Rockhopper down a bit today which justifies the sale yesterday but no opportunity to go back in until it falls 30 points or so. Banks coming back and I wonder if I should pick up some more GAME with its good yield. Christmas coming and all. 12.00: Approached by brokers this morning who do things on a profit margin approach -  pushing Imagination Technologies - http://www.imgtec.com/corporate/ - Now at 380... they have been for a few moment almost 400. They are akin to ARM which I just got out of 50%. The trend as friend shows on the Imagination Graph. There is a stream of good news... but trading today is remarkably low on that news. The brokers promised rises galore, I feel there may be a fall before a rise... will continue to watch Monday 4th October The Far East, which you may have caught on to as being my guide was marginally up in a mixed environment and I am thus surprised at a lower start here. Rockhopper is off 10, for example. Have been thinking of putting more into gold. I am looking at mining shares with the promise of increased production and Centamin Egypt fits the bill. On Sunday there was a recommendation for Avocet Mining from Questor (who sometimes gets is very right) in the Telegraph. Am looking in to it. http://www.avocet.co.uk/ 08.18: Avocet is up 6 as might be expected, but with less than 300,000 shares traded this must be a markup. I shall wait. They do look interesting. I will be shifting money from oil to gold a little bit I think. Will write something more on this share elsewhere on the site anon, after further research. 09.40: SOLD 1000 Rockhopper at £4.3625 - seem to be falling fast and felt I ought to take some cash out of Oils as mentioned above AND: SOLD: 1000 Desire at £1.549 for the same reasons. Now if they drop a lot in the next few hours I might buy them back. But the objective is to get some cash out and be prepared to buy into the Gold Diggers! If the filthy Al Quaida threats come off gold should prosper. Essential to be entirely without sentimentality in the market. You may be sure that the accountants of Al Quaida sell off all manner of stocks before an attack, and buy on the fall. They ARE monsters! 11.15: Of course the usual black anti-matter (rather than magic) gets to work and both Rockhopper and Desire rise after a sale! But Avocet is now just 1 up indicative of that markup situation, with still a mere 600,000 shares changing hands. If the market goes down today might give me a chance to use some of the cash with an Avocet purchase. But happy to wait. Looks like I shall be quite heavily down today. 17.50: Not a happy day -  Main Portfolio down £843; B down £4 -  but it was worse. As I write DOW down over 100 - maybe it going to be one of THOSE weeks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wk Beg 27 September: (FTSE: 5598 up 90; DOW: 10860 up 263)Share to watch... LLOY - BIG RISE THIS WEEK! I am seeing a run of lesser lows and higher highs and sense a breakout to at least 80 in late September early October.RBS also looks set for an advance of at least 10% - around 6 points. And watch MAX too. Still surprised at Laura Ashley moving upwards, but then so still is Tesco which means stores on the move and Christmas coming - which means GAME might do well, to say nothing of phones and thus ARM - certainly right on that last week. The South Atlantic oil searchers have limited equity out there and the prices have risen above expectations. I do believe those who missed out of sold early (me did this, me not add at this time) are now buying. With Desire emulating Rockhopper which was worth 55 million in March and is now, on my calculations worth 15 billion is the driver to all who are watching carefull.  Soon Desire will drill again, and if they strike then whoosh in more ways that one. Rockhopper hit last week's prediction of 500 and I am sure there is more to come, and Desire has yet to pass through 200. On further good news this week it will do so. Desire is a cheap way of chasing Rockhopper. Meanwhile I now have 10,000 MAX which I think may be a new gusher, and still have faith in MATRA who have identified their drilling problems (water) and expect to go into oil production slightly later than predicted... but produce they shall. Watch these shares. I am already in them... ha ha. NOTE: Due to computer problem Monday late starting. Next week, due to movements there will be less activity on the accounts (Friday  24 Sept Closing: made over £4,000 (inc SB A/C) on the week.). Main Portfolio Standing at 97,541 Friday 1st October Flying back to UK midmarket. Half of Far East appear to have a holiday with no activity, Singapore and Japan up though. The general decline in the market over the week with the usual lack-lustre results on a range of figures from the USA have put a stop to the potential surge I felt was there world-wide. My position on that is unchanged, just a question of when. Hope for a little recovery today with an improvement next week. Should be able to operate on Spread Betting with greater efficiency too.  However in the last two weeks I remain about £12K up. 06.00: Far East, on second glance only China and Hong Kong inactive, the rest are up on average a little over 1% at this point which should lift the western markets as the week closes. Much later: aftre return to UK: Saw that I finished the day up almost £2,000 as the predicted rally arrived with a faint wimper. Nice rise on MATRA Thursday 30th September 06.00: So - a general retreat in the Far East, Nikkei diwb over 100, just about puts the final nail in the coffin of my expectations for this week. Now I want a big fall so that a rally on the rolling waves of greed and fear bring me into profit once more next week... the week is dead, long live the week. Closing and beyond - ie next day: Internet connection broken in Sri Lanka so was unable to do anything. Down £1,300 on the day and £64 down on SB. Wednesday 29th September 03.08: Far East markets, where I am at, or surrounded by and thus well ahead in time  - are mixed mid sessions. MY CALL ON THIS WEEK IS BADLY WRONG THUS FAR. However some is due to profit taking from big rises over the last two weeks and no decent piece of good news. With three days left I still might get it right. There has been no plunge and the markets seem to pull back even on bad news. We shall all find out by Friday. 05.30: Gradually all indices in the Far East have gone into the blue around .9% - suggesting a rise of 50 points on the FTSE at the opening. Does this mean the general rise I predicted for this week is going to happen after all, and all my losses will be recouped... mmm nice if it happens. BTW forgot to mention some movement on MATRA yesterday with much higher trading... problems being solved, promise of a cash flow... soon... will they go to 5-10p before Christmas... End of day: Up £555 but but nowhere near my losses this week. I really felt a surge was to take place this week and many of the indicators I rely on hinted at this. Spread Betting was even worse - but I am limited to the banks and do not have the opportunity to watch closely. See what tomorrow brings. Tuesday 28th September Lost £600 on the day. Am operating from a laptop in Sri Lanka and cannot keep up the site as well as in UK. Today was once more turned upside down, as some small rally was about to take place it seemed. The figures for US 'Customer Confidence' which always seems to affect the market - insofar as the market makers fiddle about heftily, for there is certainly no sign of immediate market activity per se - GOT IT WRONG again: ACTUAL 48.5, SURVEY 52.5, PREVIOUS 53.5. The market dropped. Then gradually it pulled back and closed up 5 with the DOW also up 45 Monday 27th September 2010 06.15: Watching the Far East -  EVERYTHING is up; every indices at this time. If this continues I see a big rise at the opening, with perhaps a retreat around midday then a strengthening when the DOW follows. This may be a spectacular beginning to a BULL week. 07.03: A general rise averaging up 1.3% appears to be the run in the Far East - China; India; Indonesia; Japan; Australia... moment ago seemed to be easing but now coming back. If this continues my general predictions look good... sudden thought - what if North Korea invades the South...? Not today. Lost £1900 on the day. Wk Beg 20 September: (FTSE: 5508 up 7; DOW: 10607 up 207)Share to watch... LLOY - I am seeing a run of lesser lows and higher highs and sense a breakout to at least 80 in late September early October if not before. And watch MAX too. Surprise Laura Ashley moving upwards, but then so is Tesco which means stores on the move and Christmas coming - which means GAME might do well, to say nothing of phones and thus ARM. The South Atlantic oil searches should fall off at the beginning of the week, but I am expecting a strong demand on further good news with Rockhopper getting to at least 500 and Desire pushing well into the 200s. NOTE: Due to computer problem Monday late starting. For the next two weeks due to movements there will be less activity on the accounts (Friday  17 Sept Closing: made £7,000 (inc SB A/C) on the week.) Friday 24th September Yesterday a fall off turned into a marginal rally. The Far East is mixed but not dramatic. I sense a pressure for a rise as the fundamental. The slightest good news will bring a surge. I rather fancy that quite a lot of movement yesterday was because of traders marking rather than trades. So, today, what? Marginal fall followed by a rise, maybe 50 points. I am more optimistic this morning than I was yesterday afternoon. 22.00: DOW finished up almost 200 points. FTSE up 51 - the rise I predicted above was spot on.  The main portfolio reflected the general steady advance with a gain of £2132. I also progressed slightly on the spread betting. Unless something unpleasant happens over the weekend (to some extent I discount press speculations by experts who only think they know what they are doing -  was it not a British Chancellor of teh Exchequor who called thing ' young scribblers' - we shall have a really good advance next week. ARM was particularly strong and I would have done better not to have sold over 50% of my holding earlier in the summer. But -  yet again, nobopdy made a loss making a profit... and no good crying over spilt milk, might have been whiskey are concept which buoy me up... no spelling checker on this system... Thursday 23rd September The Far East again too mixes to call. Was unable to do the blog yesterday due to circumsances way beyond my control, but at the end of the day made £70 across my actions which just about covered a meal of doubtful quality in a Far East Italian restaurant.. which in itself is a bizarre combination. Meanwhile: 09.31: Though there was an improving market at the beginning there now appears a strong decline and I fear the week is going to go down the drain. 11.55: The drain remains open with my spread betting being chewed and the South Atlantic for the first time in two weeks not coming to my rescue. But good news from Matra - go look at site via the Oils page. They report problems in both of their wells which appear soluable and actually not as bad as expected with an indication of oil production taking place in the near future. Hoping. 14.30: Yet again the surveyors are way out on the American Jobless figures which are lower than 'expected' and I have noticed that this is one of the statistics which alarm or please the market, especially the American one, most. My entire screen is red with the exception of MATRA which nationally is hardly a market aviour. The DOW is not running nand I suggest a big drop on the day.  About to lose some of my remarkable gains. 22.30: Main Portfolio down £670 - which is a lot less than I expected. Might even get it back tomorrow. Tuesday 21st September 2010 Far East mixed, DOW rose, rather fancy a weak fall at the opening with a gradual strengthening with a big jumps -100 points - on any good news, or a reverse on a bad. Now convinced we are at the beginning of a long slow bull market. Yesterday's purchase of 4,000 MAX making 10,000 is a strategic buy based on big time delivery in 5 years... a new Rockhopper perhaps. I have made not less than £25K on Rockhopper on such a strategic holding. Intend to remain calm all day. Monday 20th September 2010 The Far East appears mixed and the lack of direction should result in a decline in the FTSE, certainly in the first few hours. I am sure the South Atlantic shares will fall on profit taking so it will be interesting to see if they come back later on genuine buying interests. My calculation that Rockhopper has change from a £55m company to a £15 billion company may drive interest, with Desire trailing along until they also strike. I appear wrong over Laura Ashley as there has been some increase in share value there, though I much much prefer Tesco on the High Street. 2.45: MAX Petroleum has met with a poor well and plugged and abandoned and moved on to a new site. Shares dropped to 11.25. Further fall I shall buy. Glad I did not do so at 16. South Atlantic continue to improve, to my surprise. Banks also. Looks like another rise for me on the day. This cannot go on. 15.11: Bought 4000 MAX at 11.48p - I noticed though they are down the buying and selling was balanced so it was a mark down by the experts and as my readers know I do not trust their judgement. End: Made over £2,000 on the day helped by banks and a 50p rise in Rockhopper (3000 held - for ever at this rate). Also already over the £1,000 in spread betting. Remaining inactive on that front due to continued absense from the screen for long periods up to 3rd October. Sorry about that. But I think I must play safe with the banks being so volotile. Friday 17th After the event Due to the events of geography I was unable to address any issues today. I watched a rise followed by a rapid decline on the charts but something took place which left me almost £5,000 up on the day. Both Rockhopper and Desire rose on fresh good seismic evidence from Rockhopper including a 2000 bpd flow of oil with light weight gear. The  Gold Share in Egypt also rose above initial purchase price, ARM and others recovered. Banks spoilt the day, and blew my Spread Betting positions.   Thursday 16th My personal movements are a little more stable so I can conentrate on thoughts here. The whole of the Far East was lower. The trend this week across Europe is a weak one. I think there will be a general but slight fall today. ARM fell away after I sold a third of my holding into CEY and Centrica. Centrica has edged up, poor production, unexpected drop in that is, took it lower. But my overall position is, I think stronger. Rises on the oil exploration front have helped. Wednesday 15th Sept Suggestion is a fall on the day... no desperate new in any direction. Tuesday 14th September Dow closed up in the +80s, but lower than the day's high. There should be a retreat, a gathering of breath at some point this week. Time for masterly inactivity for those of us who feel that we are in a recovery from a major fall, rather than in a temporary rise in a bear market.  I think, as the week progresses Banks should put on a little more, oils will follow an oil price rise, and the fundamental pressure will be for rises rather than falls. I will be away from the screen today most of the time -  hence the call for inactivity. Hope I am not shocked when I return to the screen, probably early on Wednesday. Finished the day down £150 In the Far East everything was up except for the Nikkei reflecting the Prime Minister elections foolishness. Bloomberg seems to projecting a lower opening across Europe. They are usually right but always state their case in such absolute terms as to preclude change for Bloombery excites the moment brilliantly, no doubt to secure attention. Have a feeling in the cold light of morning that the day will end higher, as indeed the week will. Buffett, by the way, says no chance of a double dip, my next door neighbour says there will be, but he is a banker and what do they know about anything? Monday 13th September Due to a computer clash not on until 08.30 when I found an advance. Banks doing well. Bad news on the Egyptian Gold Mine...lower production, big mark down on the share price (30) is, I hope, anh over reaction. Looks like LLOY may hit 80 today even! Whole of the Far East up market opended strongly. I think, subject to no bad news, or the surveyors getting it badly wrong negatively, we could get to 6000 on the FTSE and have a very very good week. Probably as well that I am away from the screen frequently not interferring with my standing arrangements. 17.30: Quite a good day with a rise of £1,214 on main portfolio, even despite CEY (Centamin Egypt) announced a big drop in production expectations but not a problem -  but the share was marked down 20 at the opening and finished the day down 15, I fancy it will rise tomorrow when the greed-ridden sentimentalists will sort their heads out - that is the predictors of sentiment, the market makers. Friday 10th September Ominously the DOW came down from close to up 100 to almost negative territory then rallied to a meagre 28 up. Overnight the Nikkei ended 140 up. the rst of the Far East was either closed or down except for Japan.. This could be the advances of the week will be eaten away today.  I am up £2,594 on the week, but could lose a lot today. Shifting from ARM to Centrica and Centamin has moved the balance of my portfolio in to other areas and slightly improved yield with Centrica at 3% rather than ARM's less than 0.5%, but the move was strategic and will not help if there is a temporary general decline. Once more, we wait and see. I was very accurate on ARM - there is still a possibiliy of a further rise today, but I expect some profit taking... took mine, after all, yesterday. Again will watch to add some MAX and GAME if I can to main portfolio. Have about £1,000 available. 15.45: Nothing has happened to justify moves. ARM down 3.5 but Centamin up 3.7 - was up 9 at one point.  This may have been a good move out of ARM and into CEY. Looks like I shall end the day up a couple of hundred. 18.00: I laugh with relief the main portfolio is up... wait for it... £14.  This makes 2,607 on the week, plus a gain of £150 on spread betting. That's OK and I do think next week will ease upwards too. Have a nice weekend. Thursday 9th September I see a powerful upwards trend in ARM and if there is a rise into the mid 380s I can see a breakout to 410ish temporarily. Word is Samsung has chosen ARM designs for new projects rather than Imagination Technologies which dropped almost 12% on the day (I shall definately sell 1000 above 400). Yesterday buying and selling was even but they rose almost 6%, but just after closing 1.5 millions shares in a block were recorded - someone? outlayed almost £5m. As mentioned below yesterday I will put funds into GAME, and possibly an oil major BP? and BT -  £2,000 into each - also looking at Centrica - do not have any utility shares.  DOW closed up 40 which was much down on earlier highs: Nikkei up 73 - ret of Far East generally up around0.5% except China, down. Expecting a dithering general rise, hopefully Banks and ARM will deliver. 10.15: ARM went beyond 400 twice today, watching carefully. MATRA also up 0.1 of a p to .02. Market drifting upwards. Will the Americans kill it off when they come on line. 11.50: Sold 1000 ARM at 406 and bought about 1100 Centrica at about 343 - this is a better yield stock and I have no utilities at all... until now. And winter is coming. 16.20: Sold a further 1000 ARM at 400 - in an ISA platform - and bought 2000 Centamin Egypt (Gold Mining) at about 180 (Contracts awaited for confirmation). Meanwhile looks like I shall be at least £1,000 up on the day unless a nuclear war begins in the next ten minutes. 17.15: Up £1432 on the day and with the SB A/C over £1,600 Wednesday 8th September Everything is red... (later, at 14.00 - but go below)  down everywhere, but everywhere. Away a lot today. Am thinking of reducing exposure in ARM and switching some cash to GAME within an ISA. Given I sell 1000 ARM at £3.60 - prospects of it going to £4? Yes. Especially if I sell. (£300) Yield is about 0.5% - ie about £15 pa. Would give me 5,000 ARM at 70p - prospect of going to 100? Higher I think. (£1,500) Yield is 8% (£300). Looks like a no brainer. DOW finished down 107; Far East all red. Nikkei down 201 Should fall today big time. Woe is me. 12.45: Market appears (I have been absent with leave) to have moved into the blue with even the FTSE up 14 from something like down 40. ARM has gone up 15 so I am glad I did nothing... on leave! Woe is lessening. 14.00: Across the whole of Europe there has been a recovery. Yesterday the banks were on the brink, today they are OK. Yesterday a pundit said no chance of double dip; today a Harvard prof almost said - bound to happen and USA is in a worse state than Greece... my position tend to: 'Go tell it to the Marines!' Nobody knows! 14.15: Would not be surprised to see a surge in the DOW after the opening, with Europe following and feeding. I would just like to see the sad banks get to where they should be -  that is LLOY and RBS... there are others which must surely die. The more I watch and listen to Bloomberg the more I find black being white on a Tuesday and white being white, and black, on a Wednesday, and all of them being pink on a Thursday - and on each day the Bloomberg pretty girls were speaking as if what they were saying was an absolute, and surely they know less than anyone - they always get it wrong by the following day, but NEVER mention that fact. Mind you they are working from scripts I guess. 16.45: Glad I did not sell ARM -  up 21.4; South Atlantic again came to rescue with 10 added to Rockhopoper and 1.5 to Desire. Other small risers and small fallers but I think I may be over £1,000 up on the day. 18.00: To my pleasant and anti-woe surprise I am up £1,828 on the main portfolio which means the last two days losses are countered and I am up over £1,100 on the week so far and I think both tomorrow and Friday might see further rises. Happy me. Tuesday 7th September The general and total rise of yesterday was not carried through over-night with both Hong Kong and the Nikkei down as much as they were up yesterday, the others were up though. So I think today will also be lacklustre with relatively low trading and movements, and perhaps some retreat. I think banks will continue to advance a little on the week, and though the jump of 100 I looked for yesterday in the FTSE is now a dream not fulfilled I rather fancy by the end of the week the 100 may be added. The sentiment, and it all to do with sentiment, which is informed by news and the ever present inbreed of greed and fear, is marred by those still yearning for, and writing about, a double dip  - but the wise ones are buying I suspect. 08.30: Trickles of unpleasantry surrounding banks coming in so they are falling. Damn 08.40: By the looks of it will be down well over £1,000 by the end of the day... wish I hadn't gone out last night for a meal. 12.05: Everything goes against me - the 3Ms - MATRA, MAX and MILLWALL -  all down and I have large numbers of shares in each, so the gearing is nasty. I think I shall be lucky to be down only £2,000 today. And no progress on spread betting either. Might go and see a friend in a high rise. 15.00: Today is not a good day... hoped that the DOW might provide a heroic gesture. No such luck. 17.45: Good heavens I am much relieved to find I am £261 down, on examination I see the South Atlantic Oil shares saved the day countering other large falls.. FTSE down 31; DOW down 84, up a bit from lows, as I write - although the day was red -  and this was repeated across Europe - there was no great drive downwards. Hoping for recovery tomorrow... no reason why not to. Monday 6th September (FTSE: 5428; DOW: 10447) Greetings to the week of fear and greed oh beloved followers -  remember the decisions are yours not mine. I am expecting another week of modest rises with the FTSE going through 6000 by Christmas. I am the only person in the world thinking this, I think. But go look at the Strategic Page and beware the concept of the Black Swan. I think Oil will go up this week, and continue to rise to go over 100$ early next year. Remember the trend is our friend, and the trend is up. Willi of BA cautioned those who are talking everything down, and if he can say that... it must be right. In the immediate term: this week -  I see Banks rising, stores rising, oils rising -  in short I hope to come out in the blue on Friday. DOW closed today! However the Far East is well up across the board (Nikkei up 187), and with no bad news likely to come out of the USA I think the FTSE will put on at least 100 today. Here we go: 12.00: The array of my main portfolio is such that it looks like a fall today - MATRA and MAX down; banks not bounding as I thought they might do; and other oils drifting down. But this is the halfway mark. Could get worse. FTSE up a meagre 21. 15.00: The lack of action due to the DOW not being open, and the knowledge of that has tended to make the day slow and lacking in activity. It remains to be seen whethere the low level of trading will knock some spots of last week's progress for me. 18.00: A very lethargic and disappointing day which left the main portfolio down £395. The lack of drive from the USA did not help. But EVERY market was up. A further surge in the Far East overnight should do it. We shall see, as usual. Friday 3rd September All markets, except Australia (minor down) and Brazil  have edged up over night. The Dow closed up 50; the Far East showed reasonable gains. There is background noise of improvements in employment and a general sensation that the crisis whatever it was and wherever it was is contained or curtailed. I think a big rise on the day, though banks have opened slightly lower. MAX and MATRA are adding tiny bits, but they will be winners on strikes. 09.30: ~From what I can see, my impression, is that there is not a lot of trading going on today as they wait for unemployment figures from the US which are expected to be higher -  bet they are lower, and if that the market will surge - BUT I also notice about 15X more trading on MATRA which have climbed back to 0,02 - about 10% up on the week. Banks falling. 14.00: WHO IS IT that the surveyors survey??? Take this: US Non Farm Rolls unemployed: Actual -54K; Survey -100K; Previous -131K. Enough said. Market rising FTSE up  70 -  bet the DOW soars, and we will take off for a further big rise... This has been my week so far. 18.00: The market, which began the week around 5,200 finished at 5428, up over 200 with the FTSE up 57 today and I made £1,325 on the day, making £4,380 on the week. Though figures wearied towards the end of the afternoon I fancy this was due to profit taking. Unless something bad over the weekend occurs I can see the market continuing to progress for the whole of next week. Some good news will create another surge like this week's. Ever the optimist. Thursday 2nd September It appears every exchange in the world is up - this should be a good day. But a lot of red showing in the opening seconds -  reaction to yeterday, profit taking... but I think a big rally later on if the slightest good news comes in. 11.00: I notice that MATRA and MAX are being bought today. Should have bought more Max on Tuesday, but felt it might go lower. Have 6000 and 120,000 MATRA. Might be the start of something good. 21.15: -  Been out. Down a massive £32 on the main portfolio. I kick myself for not picking up more MAX at about 12 - they are now 17. Looks like the DOW will end up about +40 -  so I am looking at further advances in Europe tomorrow since most indices seem to have finished just under highs. Wednesday 1st September Wisdom: Thought for the month: September is a bad month say the Americans... apparently statistically the market falls on average each Sepember by around 1.5% - then is rises. Since 1.5% falls and rises are not unknown in a day I find this a rather useless piece of information which like most chart material is self fulfilling - people sell because they think the market will fall, so the market falls.  September opened with the FTSE at 5225.58 -  see you on 1st October. China the only index down. I think the improvement manifest in the last hours of yesterday will continue. I see me just watching today... with a statement of riches at the end of the day. I rather fancy banks and oils will rise.  Much talk yesterday though of gold getting to £1,500 -  surely that would indicate a drop in the equities market. I think much of the bad news is already factored in to the market and though it might droop on further bad news it will fly on good news. 15.45: Now we are motoring on the good USA news -  Dow up 220 and the FTSE 123 - was I right, or was I right... but of course there is always chance of a turnabout... we shall see, that is the only thing for sure. 18.30: Main Portfolio up £1,532 on the day - taking yesterday and the end of last week - I am up almost £4,000 in three days... and I think the surge is only beginning. Unfortunately I am cash strapped and cannot put more in. Might be a good thing. Hope tomorrow runs well.  With the Dow currently up 240 points and the FTSE closing 141 -  and that at a rising high... hopes that tomorrow will be good too. Somebody bought 200,000 Max Petroleum at the close of the market today. That will have cost close to £30,000 -  watch tomorrow. Tuesday 31st August The newspapers, Bloomberg, and all the rest appear wrapped in gloom: poor house prices in the UK (driven by the need for larger deposits particularly for first time buyers - so no mortgages... so no deposits, so no interest for the banks... market forces will cut in, deposits will lower, interest rates will lower, house prices will rise, this month, next month, next year... but not a word about that); shuddering news that because less Americans are at work then Mexico will be the first to be hit because they supply things; and the car driving season is almost over and thus oil will not be needed, and the inventories are higher than ever; and OPEC is concerned (so OPEC reduce production, and oil prices will go up this month, next monthy, next year... but not a word about that). AS EVER we are in the grip of the waves of monetry natural selection... survival of the patient. Odds are the market will fall today, and maybe on Wednesday, but I bet it is higher by the end of the week than it closed last Friday (5201.56). We shall all see, in much the same way that we will all age and eventually die. Not rocket science. 07.55: German economy booming; British Consumer Confidence rising; will new mortgages show an increase - will this counter the Far East sell-off?  All shall be revealed in minutes. 11.15: Market more or less as expected - down 40+. How interesting it is that the German economy is booming, jobless reducing, China is booming, India has a 9% growth and the Indian Market has DOUBLED in the last year - oh - the last year was global recession don't forget. 15.00: Gradually the screens go blue as the fundamentals deep in the background overcome the the blather of the pundits and the constant attempts to down talk the enconomy... bit like how the surveyors always get it wrong. Am I the only person on the planet with optimism in my veins. And remember the billions we 'wasted' on saving the banks - latest is that the 'taxpayer' is in line to make about THIRTY BILLION on the repayments! Where has all that turn round come from? 15.10: US Consumer confidence up too: 53.5 - Survey wrong, of course: 50.5 and previous 50.4 - surveyors must have asked the wrong folk. 19.30: Dow up a bit, after down a lot; FTSE up 23 after down a lot; main portfolio up £1,555 (mainly thanks to ARM); spread betting up 28 after down 60 - not a bad day despire the gloom mongers. Monday 30th August - FLASH -the Strategy Blog has been added to. Shame not active today with the Bank Holiday. There is, on the whole, a general rise in markets, except Indonesia for a change. NIKKEI up 150, FTSE would have gained today. News on banks in Greece might have taken some steam out of our banks, but it is considered out of the question that Greece will default... EU would not allow it. Progress is being made. Look forward to tomorrow if the general rise continues today. Friday 27th August Though the DOW was down at the close the Far East indices were largely in the blue over night. Sets of data, revised, on the economy are due out today in UK and USA which (having been assessed incorrectly by the experts) will affect sentiment one way or the other. If it is good then banks will benefit. I think OIL is on the way up as winter approaches. My weighting towards OIL will help me and make me very happy. GOLD is being plugged as hitting 1,300$ by the end of the year. I am not sure, as the world economy falteringly improves. But if I held gold in mining or some other access I would hang on, for ever. 09.30: For the first time in ages the surveyors are not a lot out, 1/10% in predicting UK GDP -  which is up that amount and up Year on Year by that amount to +1.7% - is this a silver lining? Myu screen is more red than green but on small trading levels. Bloody Rockhopper up 10 since I sold them... that is why they have gone up! 10.30: Ouside wet and drizzle-bound gloom. The markets seem to reflect this with no clear path being shown. A little more blue appearing and still the trades are quite light. MAX for example is down 1p - 8% - yet only 500,000 shares traded: about £5,000 worth. Wish I had £10,000 spare - could blow this little market. 14.00: US GDP slightly better than expected - survey +1.4, actual 1.6. Screen getting a tad bluer and banks much improved. Fingers crossed for a positive end to the week and the day. 19.00: Well the market went down at about 15.00 for some reason... I had to go away from my desk... when I came back a couple of hours later the entire picture had changed with the FTSE ending the day 45 up, the DOW as I write being up 125 and damn me if I was not up £1,115 on the day, and thus up £385 on the week which is something of a relief. I still have that sense that we are in for a big rally, leading on to a major rise by Christmas -  FTSE above 6,000! Am I the only person who thinks this? Thursday 26th August Following three days of misery I note that the Dow closed up almost 20 (19.61) at 10060 following a low of 9939 - this signals to me something of a recovery after the said three miserable days. 09.00: My screen is blue. With the exception of MAX Petroleum - Annual Report today go to link on the OIL screen. If the rises today hold I shall recoup all my losses on the week. But who knows what will happen in five minutes time.  May buy a few more MAX once I have had a closer look at the report. 09.15: I decided to double my holding in MAX by adding a modest 3000 - at 13.25. Buy striking lucky with an oil explorer -  Desire and Rockhopper - I have made, for a small investor a lot of money... buying at 10-30 and selling at 110-330. I have a feeling that MAX will deliver. They have income from proven well - read up on their site. Looks a good one to me. I have a target in my head of around 50. (They have been 210 a couple of years ago). Oil is low again, but has gained today... oil shares will follow a jump in Oil to, say, $80+, currently about 74.20 for UK Crude for October. 13.30: US Jobless have reduced... good news.... drop of 25,000 in a week. OIL now 74.73 -  are things going my way now?  Bit of red creeping into the screen though.  Might be a nice surge once the DOW opens in an hour. Fingers crossed again. 16.00: Oil 75.42 -  that is close to a 1.25$ rise on the day. Something going on in the minds of the Oil Futures people. 18.00: The blue did not maintain the early morning promise so the Main Portfolio was up a meagre £605. Oil, as I write is 75. MAX let me down on the day, but this is a long term investment - at least a year I think. I am hoping to take my holding up to 10,000 if it falls towards the 10 mark. (And of course it will then drop to a lot less... with my luck!). The Dow failed to stay blue and is 20 down as I write. Again we shall see how their day goes and what the Far East does to follow. Until tomorrow then... Wednesday 25th August Papers are full of gloom. Far East EVERY indices including brave old Indonesia down. Market WILL open lower, and stay that way -  that's what everyone is saying. I am going to lose money today. Watch. Meanwhile see: Global Sell Off snippet in Situation Thoughts page. 10.30: Despite the gloom quite a lot of blue appearing on my screen as if the bargain hunters are sniffing around the panic people. Market forces will always prevail under the twin banners of fear and greed. I am watching GAME which is sinking and carries a fine yield. There are no indications that it is in any kind of trouble - but then I would be the last to know. 13.45: Sold 1000 Rockhopper at 304. Felt I needed a little liquidity. They were bought around 40. A report from Rockhopper earlier in the day on technical matters was a trifle lack lustre. If they go up - I still have a few; if they go down, I can go back in. 15.15: More bloody gloom from across the pond: Home Sales June - 12.4% - guess what the survey was -  not even close - thought it would be0% (where DO they get their data from?) Previous month was + 23.6% -  crazy figures anyway. But sentiment will wind up again and down the market will go... be wonderful if Rockhopper went down in sympathy having sold some - and ARM and MAX - I will buy if they do. 18.00: Main Portfolio down £1116... that is about £1,400 on the week... but remember the waves: is there a trough to come or am I in it? The market has gone down three days in a row, and as I write the DOW is down 32 which is a lot less than earlier in the day. The bad news is in... so up we go... unless there is more bad news. Let's see what the Far East does over night. Tuesday 24th August Hope against Hope: Again all Far East Indices down with the exception of Indonesia and CHINA. The falls are modest, around the 1.3%. This after the Dow down 40. The Nikkei was down 121. Such figures suggest a decline across Europe but I do not see these figure as significant so anything could happen today and I still have this nagging gut feeling of a rally, otherwise yesterday's personal gains will be lost. 08.30: Well it is not rocket science, but the market is red all over, roughly 1.3% with the FTSE down the 40 mark 0.7%, but not too much trade, so we have mark downs on the whole. Wish I'd had the courage of my convictions to short on the Spread Betting which is down £60, but I think banks will be the first to turn round later in the day. 19.00: End of Day - was away from about 10.30 and came back to check and find the main porfolio is down £1214. But generally above lows. There is always another day, like tomorrow. Monday 23rd August Let battle begin. Last week, despite a miserable market, lethargic, driven by sentiment, driven by market makers moving prices, rather than traders moving markets, and the whole fired by the idiot surveyors who always get it wrong, I made a profit of about £1,000 on the main portfolio and lost about £300 in spread better, bit less - bloody banks. Whereto: Fancy banks will rise (hope to God they do); OIL drifted down a lot, and I think we may see a reversal there. A military strike on Iran is so expected as not to be a Black Swan Event... except that the market will treat it as such and wallop down -  but OIL will surge. That is in the background. North Korea might do something insane and disappear as a country if they do. But on the small scale I still fancy MATRA and MAX Pet, and I think we will soon see a rise in GAME. BP -  either way. But if BP goes much lower I am going to buy some. 8.45: A troll around the Far East Indices showed that only Indonesia was up overnight. Australia, with their political shambles is down. Good job our politicians are happy to go to bed with each other, except Gordon. The prospect, looking at them, of that happening in Australia is as hair raising as Maradonna running naked through the streets of BA. But I digress. Market will drift up I think, gaining speed as the week progresses -  thus, am I sublimly optimistic. 9.30: May be nothing in it but MATRA moved up 6% on very minimal trading -  stock shortage... ? Some news coming? MAX up a bit to. Mmmm. 11.05: As far as I can tell there is a general rise going on on quite low trading levels. Whether this is significant I do not know... it feels like a pressure to RISE. 18.00: The day ended generally blue with the Main Portfolio up £954 -  the Dow began well then sagged into the red and at this moment is just back into the blue - dithering Americans. Perhaps the week of rally will not take place, but let's see what the Far East does over night, and indeed what the Dow does as their day wearies on. (A day like this for the rest of my investing life would go down rather well.) Friday 20th August Yesterday all was going well, I must have been £2,000 up on the main porfolio. Then! Absolutely nothing to do with us but out came figures for the US employment showing 500,000 claims.. up by 22,000. The damned experts were surveying zero fall/rise. HOW CAN THEY GET IT SO WRONG? So on one at least of the apocolyptic horses came the sentimentalists and down went the market. To my delight in fact I ended £70 up on the day. Today The entire world indices are down, all that I can locate, with the exception of Russia and Indonesia, which, other than locally do not count. We can assume our own market today will go down, possibly by the 100-200 which had engaged my dreams this week to go up.I think my portfolio is robust enough to handle that, and the spreadbetter is entirely dependent on the banks -  maybe the stops will cut in maybe not. So, I am off to London to take a young member of my extended family to look into the matter of joining the Army, then a river trip on the catamaran bus the whole way to Greenwich and back - and somewhere along the line ice cream and crisps, or something. I check the level of pain when I get back. But - optimism slipping in -  might be pleasantly surprised. Thursday 19th August 08.10: Nikkei up 122 with the FTSE immediately advancing... noticed that Rockhopper immediately dropped 10 then regained. Read a broker comment yesterday which had a target price in excess of £6 - I always thought they would go to £5 if they struck oil and they have. It is just that they ahve not struck oil a second time. Perhaps today is going to be the large leap day. at the moment 1.30: Yet again as things improve and rise out from the US comes rubbish information. YET AGAIN the highly paid surveyors of the circumstances get it wrong and underestimate the number of US unemployed - up 22,000. This fundamental has an impract on sentiment, double dippers stick to the information limpet like, American sneezes. Thank heavens for the immunity of China and India. I hate the survey people, why cannot they always get it right? See above under Friday. Wednesday 18th August I said last night, full of euphoria: Fundamentally if the markets stay up overnight in USA and Far East perhaps a 100-200 point rise on or during the day. 09.00: Let me rephrase that: the DOW failed to hold in the almost 200 area and fell away to 103. The Far East stayed in dither mode with the Nikkei up a paltry 78 - and the FTSE went down on the opening and is around -40 as I write. Meanwhile Rockhopped has hit a dry well and puts in a disclaimer that it was a longshot anyway -  they use different words but go look at their site for the drilling update: http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk/. The screen is now prettywell red... rather doubt it will hit 200 today. Never trust a fortune teller. 12.10: FTSE still around the -40 mark... but not so far worsening. Hav a feeling that if the DOW opens to the North then we may see a rally... is 200 still on the cards. That would be very nice, but not likely now. SA shares still smarting at the news of that dry well. 17.45: A seriously lack lustre day, with no sense of direction at all. I was genuinely surprised. Let's see what tomorrow holds.  Main Portfolio drifted down, would have been a lot worse around 2 in the afternoon. So there was some recovery going on, and this was certainly the case on the DOW. I just have to be patient.  Main Portfolio down £860 Tuesday 17th August FLASH: 14.15 Figures from USA are not bad - expect DOW to make ground on opening, should affect our late afternoon trading The whole of everywhere seems to be taking a breath and looking around. The DOW closed off a ping, the Nikkei was off a bit... the 'expectations' for Japanese 'economy' were greater than the reality as usual (well paid pundits) - but no big dip - but Japan is the SECOND biggest world economy... everything is insignificant at the moment. We wait. Meanwhile one of the big silly houses of an economic nature has suggested there is a 30% possibility of a double dip. Look that that expression -  what in the name of God does it mean? Nothing! When they talk talking of 90% certainty then we can listen. There will be no double dip. The trend is up. Everything will rise. Start trickle buying - I mean, continue trickle buying. BTW one follower reports they have 250,000 in MATRA now... mmm... more than my 120,000... if it rises a penny he improves by £2,500! Let us ALL pray. (My knees hurt.) No action envisaged by me today on the main market -  unless MAX drops a bit. 12.45: Yesterday the South Atlantic shares drooped badly and account for most of my loss. Today, now Rockhopped is up 18p wiping out yesterday's loss and Desire is up 9 - what's going on down there? Nice things perhaps. Meanwhile Oil is strengthening a tad, and dear darling Millwall is up another 6% of nothing. 14.20: Market gathering steam. The boost on mentioned on Saturday for this week might well be happening. What about FTSE being 5500 by the end of the week?! 16.30: FTSE closed up 71 with the DOW as I write up 131; good banks;good SA Oils; ARM up 13 - I have probably regained yesterdays loss and made more.  See at 18.00. 18.00: Main Portfolio up £2,396 - thus regaining something of the last 6-7 days of losses. And I think tomorrow will bring further rises -  DOW up 166 as I write... the Far East will follow and we will follow both tomorrow... perhaps 100-200 points up tomorrow with banks leading I think... but a general rise, as predicted. Now watch it all go pear-shaped for me. Monday 16th August A new week. Will be away from the computer several times so must prepare a defensive position based on the concept of masterly inactivity. Main Portfolio: I think, however, that I have too much (18K) tied up in one share (ARM) and want to reduce by about 30%. The money will be placed in BT and TESCO which at once strengthens the High Street but still has a tech input... more in TESCO than BT. These moves will be within the ISA environment so tax is not a factor. Outside of the ISA environment I will be selling 210 ARM and buying a few more GAME at some point and I still am interested in adding to MAX and will research further. Results will be on the appropriate pages. BTW have almost 2,000,000 shares in Millwall Football Club bought over the years (foolish me) for £7,472 and now worth £534. But they have just been promoted to the next league, and at the moment are at the top of it. Mmm. No action. Just watch and dream on. 09.45: Sold 1220 ARM c. £3,700; reinvesting approx £1,500 in BT; £1.800 in TESCO; and holding £500 in cash available in about 10 days. This within main portfolio/ISAs. Strategy of increasing yield - from 0.2 to c.4.0% on this block of money, with safe stock. 09.50: At dentist, missed the opening; weak start now drifted to FTSE 30 down. Millwall up 20%! about the only stock up. 12.00: The market dithers and does nothing - Rockhopper down 10 -  but I sold 2000 at about 20p higher than present price. Very little trade, boredom (that's a joke...bore...oil wells!) 14.00:  The dithering drift continues. Wonder if the American markets will make a difference half an hour's time - I think it will rise. Millwall up 30% now... but on a total market of about £6,000 worth of shares changing hands. 15.45: What an interesting day; FTSE now just in the blue; South Atlantic shares down over 5% (but did sell some much higher, might go back); and oh, shame, Millwall now only 14% up - millions of shares changing hands, but very little money - ripe for a rich man??? 18.00: Main portfolio down £1,481 (less than I thought it would be) Friday 13th August (Friday 13th!!!!) With exception of Indonesia, Russia and the USA all major global indices are up slightly. This suggests a general improvement here during the day, with perhaps a surge in the late afternoon. I shall do nothing, content that I am balance. This could be the kiss of death. Will be away from the desk most of the day so will remain in the laptops of the financial gods. 08.45: So far so good, everything coming up slightly. MAX up 2 - £60... should have bought 10,000 yesterday, glad I bought 3,000 - probably crash later in the day - only joking. Every indication that my feeling that the earlier falls in the week were mark downs rather than selling. 19.00: By the end of the day everything off tops, but main indices still in the blue: FTSE +9.3; DOW as I write +16. There was an end of the week drift so there is nothing worthy of either disasterous or victorious mention... except that I am still here to tell the tale. Next week: ? I think a crawl back. Depends on the weekend scribblers who will all be trying to find good cause for there to be a double dip... I wonder why they limit themselves, why not a quadruple... and I tell you what, it would still rain somewhere, and the crops will grow, and spring WILL follow autumn... and the trend will ultimately be UP. Have a nice weekend. I will, I am still about 40K up since March. Saturday update:  In fact the Dow finished a trifling 16 down. Worldwide indices mixed up and down, but by small degrees.... will next week be a booster. I think so..Oil is down to $75 with indications of smaller demand to come -  what if there is a disasterous winter? Still looking at Oil shares as winners. BP's nasty well: some weasle comments about not quite right yet. Maybe the disaster was a prelude. Scary. But watching MAX VERY closely. Thursday 12th August (Down Again is the expectation) (See comment on MATRA) The actual amount of money traded was not that great yesterday. So the movements down yesterday were trader activated on perceived sentiment. Other than sentiment, rational fear, the fundamentals stand, for me, for an inexorable rise. So I am selling nothing. But might switch out of low yielders to higher yielders if the price seems right. Moving perhaps 3-4K out of ARM (305)(Y: 0.5%) and in to GAME  (70)(Y: 8%) is my proposal. Also drip buying into  Max Petroleum (15); and I watch BP -  so many burns (411 - almost 440 earlier in the week)(see OIL page) 10.00: Noted on Bloomberg that the FarEast was down across the board, but at the opening of the European markets there was a sharp rise off the lows. We opened with a lot of rises, perhaps markups, again. I think this may be a false dawn with a fall on the day, but there will be a real recovery next week. Or not! 10.05: Having said that and five minutes later and seeing RBS down around 4 on previous, and LLOY the same... damn it... put another 10 on both, risking no stops. 12.19: BOUGHT 3000 MAX PET at 0.1394 (See Oil Page for comments) 18.00: Improved SB by £40.  Main porfolio up £30 -  which is 1% of yesterday's losses... well, it's a start! Wednesday 11th August (a somewhat red day) 17.30 The news from the USA that joblessness was up and upping and altogether progress was miserable, followed by gloom from the Bank of England, to say nothing of the China alleged slowness just turned the screen red with the FTSE closing 131 down - and everything hovering around the lows of the day. This will mean the Far East will tremble too, and tomorrow Europe will follow - as SENTIMENT squirms... then back will come the buyers around Friday or next week depending on the weekend scribbles and fresh sentiment.  But me: blown out of the water except for the keel in spread betting with a loss on the day of £262 -  a remorseless decline with stops saving me from suicide; and the main portfolio - horrid. 19.00 Main Portfolio down £2,700.  But the actual amount of trade was not heavy, so much of this is mark down. The trouble is that at this moment the Dow (only 30 shares remember) is down 230 - 2.2%, with is .2% less than the FTSE. It for this reason I am only cleaning my revolver rather than using it. 23.55.  Dow was off 265 at the end 2.5% That should be enough to spook the Eastern Markets.	click to : GO TO TODAY'S DEALS PAGE FOR CONTINUATION OF THIS COLUMN SCROLL DOWN FOR HISTORICAL BLOGS Spread Betting Plans and Movements ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I began this week on Monday 17th January: Equity        635 (Up £100 on the week) Current position  498 Deployed   307                                                          261                                           Free          327                                                          236 Range of stops as defense if red then fired off by the programme RBS: BP: 3 at 500; 3 at 495; 3 at 495 LLOY:  20 at 67; 10 at 67.5; 10 at 68; 10 at 66.5; 30 at 65; 20 at 65: BARC: Running: 31 on LLOY, 1 on RBS, and 0 on BARC, 4 on BP .......................................................................................................... Friday 21st January 09.30: Bet 10 more on LLOY at 68.22 with a close stop this time at 67.50 raised stop of 20 at 65 to 66; added 2 to BP at 499.57 with a stop of 3 at 495 18.00: Up 22 on the day and down £128 on the week. Not good. Thursday 20th January 08.30: Left with 2 on BP and 1 on RBS I added one to LLOY at 66.6 for the hell of it. This is so irritating. 09.00: Added 3 to BP at 500 with a stop at 495; and 10 to LLOY at 65.99 but hit the wrong key and it was 30 but I left it and put a stop of 20 on at 65 18.00: The cursed stop losses have again raised their evil towards the alternative notion of 'keep losses' in that the 3 stop on BP was fired and the share then went back up. Down £17 on the day, but £130 on the week... all last week's gains gone. Damn Wednesday 19th January 08.05: Added 2 to BP at 513 with stop of 3 at; Added 10 to LLOY at 67.88 with a stop of 10 at 66.5 -  longer stops than usual. 18.30: Wiped out to be left with 2 on BP and 1 on RBS Tuesday 18th January 08.05: Added 2 to BP at 504 08.30: Added 10 to LLOY at 69.03 with a stop at 68 18.00: Poor showing on LLOY hurt and stops were knocked out., ended the day a sad £1.46 up. Monday 17th January 18.00: Lost £61 on the day.  Missed the rise in BP and got hit by LLOY retreating but no stops yet fired. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I began this week on Monday 10th January: Equity        536 (lost 39 on the week ) Current position  635 Deployed   298                                                          307                                           Free          237                                                          327 Range of stops as defense if red then fired off by the programme RBS: BP: 4 at 493; 7 at 503; 4 at 487.5; 6 at 503; 6 at 498 LLOY: 10 at 67.50; 10 at 67: 10 at 66.5; 10 at 67; 10 at 67.5; 20 at 67; 10 at 66.75; 10 at 67.5 10 at 67.75 BARC: Running: 40 on LLOY, 1 on RBS, and 0 on BARC, 1 on BP .......................................................................................................... Friday 14th January I am expecting a decline in the market, and certainly my portfolio today... the DOW failed to close in positive territory and this was followed across the Far East. I think my winning streak is over. 08.40: The BP stop fired, then the share came back so I bought back at the stop point of 503 and put a fresh stop of 6 at 498. Fancy this is a mistake. 10.15: I should have left well alone -  the new stop on BP gone. I cannot judge it it will now rise or fall so am now leaving it at £1 on, no stops. Meanwhile I have raised the stop of 65 for 20 to 67 for LLOY and added a stop of 10 at 67.5 17.00: Despite self-induced errors on BP, and thanks to LLOY I am £10 up on the day. Thursday 13th January Far East spurted following the Dow closing at 120 08.20: Raised stop on BP from 498 to 503 for 6 09.50: Added 10 to LLOY at 68.42 with a very close stop of 10 at 67.75 and the 20 stop at 65 to 66 20.00: Been away from the screen -  always profitable. At some point the stop of 10 at 67.75 went, and BP's stop of 6 at 503 is threatened and may go off in the night. But up 18 on the day. Wedneday 12th January 16.15: Moved stop of 6 with BP up from 495 to 498; added 10 to LLOY at 67.77 with a stop of 10 at 66.75 and raised the 20 stop at 18.00: Up £66 on the day... was as much as £80 Tuesday 11th January 08.30: Added 10 LLOY at 66.47, stop of 20 at 65 (I think this may be the beginning of a move to 70 quickly) 09.27: Added 2 to BP at 493.12 with a stop of 4 at 488, cancelled stop of 2 at 478 12.00: Added 2 to BP at 496.62 with a stop of 5 at 494, cancelled stop of 4 at 488 16.35: Altered stop from 5 at 494 to 6 at 495. Close stops and big bids for the capital deployed in hope of a fast advance in BA and LLOY -  definately on the table. We shall see tomorrow.  Up £74 on the day. Monday 10th January 08.30: Market opened with a damned markdown on BP which wiped my stop and all my progress last week. 12.30: Tentatively added 2 to BP 484.5 with a stop of 2 at 478 18.30: The leaks in Alaska, oil not vegetable, knocked BP sideways with little serious justification, bur the share never recovered from its markdown then LLOY flapped about. I hate bankers, very much. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- I began this week on Monday 29th December: Equity        497 (lost 100 on the week ) Current position 536 Deployed   297                                                          298                                           Free          200                                                          237 Range of stops as defense if red then fired off by the programme RBS: BP: 4 at 493; 7 at 503; 4 at 487.5 LLOY: 10 at 67.50; 10 at 67: 10 at 66.5; 10 at 67; 10 at 67.5 BARC: Running: 20 on LLOY and 1 on RBS and 0 on BARC 3 on BP .......................................................................................................... Friday 7th January Stops have fired holding some of the earlier gains. Am reassessing the situation. 08.40: In an attempt to rebuild my positions added 2 to BP at 492.12 and 10 to LLOY at 66.94 10.34: Added 2 to BP at 490.97, with a stop of 4 at 487.5 Thursday 6th January Somewhat protected by the stops, and being away from the screen most of the day -  I leave it to the gods. 08.10: Added 2 to BP at 507.18, and raised the stop with an additional 2 to 7 at 500. 09.20: Raised stop on BP to 503 12.00: Added 10 to LLOY at 68.41, sensing a general rise in the market -  might be wrong so put a close stop on this addition for 10 at 67.50. Now up to the hilt with virtually no reserves - but I think I am protected by the closeness of stops. We shall see... off to lunch now on this cold and rainy day. 21.00: Down 39 on the day. damn... could have been worse. Stop fired off on BP keeping most of the week's gains and stop for LLOY vulnerable Wednesday 5th January Yesterday was classic... I am good on a rising market. Tempted to go back into RBS - but recall getting burned in two banks (betting on the whole field in a race, bound to get the winner, but the outlay is greater) 08.50: Two close stops on LLOY fired - not sure whether to go back in. Thought I should leave things as they are for the moment, but then bought back 10 at 67.23 with a stop at 66.5 as a compromise. 10.00: Added 2 to BP at 498.27 and raised 4 stop from 486 to 493 12.30: Close stops fire off again on BP, leaving me with 2, then the market seemed to reverse so I added back 4 at 493.4 with a stop of 5 at 488 15.15: Added 10 to LLOY at 68.45 with a stop of 10 at 67 - hoping that tomorrow will pick up. Going to lunch tomorrow -  hope it gets paid for. 17.15: Up £20 on the day. I may be in a good position for tomorrow if the market rises, banks calming and of course there is a spur in oil prices this afternoon... quite a large one. Tuesday 4th January Maybe at last the pick-up looked for 08.30: Sold 2 BP at 482.29, cancelled stops and added a stop of 4 at 480 0905: Added 2 to LLOY at 67.11; upped stop to 4 at 66 09.20: BP stop put up to 483 09.25: Added 10 to LLLOY 67.40 with a stop of 10 at 66.50 10.00: Feel there might be a surge in LLOY added 10 at 67.88 with a close stop of 10 at 67 10.30: LLoyds: Raised the stop of 10 at 66.50 to 67.50, cancelled the stop of 4 at 66 11.45: BP raised stop to 486 18.00: Up £164 on the day. BP rise due to speculations as to Shell making a takeoverbid. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I began this week on Monday 29th December: Equity        497 (gained £74 on the week) Current position 497 Deployed   297                                                           297                                           Free          200                                                          200 Range of stops as defense (as at 14.00 14th December) RBS: BP: 4 at 460;4 at 462; 2 at 467  LLOY: 4 at 65 BARC: Running: 8 on LLOY and 1 on RBS and 0 on BARC 10 on BP .......................................................................................................... Friday 31st December Not worth getting out of bed for. Thursday 30th December 18.00: Lost £48 on the day... I am getting this so wrong. Wednesday 29th December 18.00: Took off 2 from BP at 470.15 to balance the figures and risk ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I began this week on Monday 20th December: Equity        413 (gained £60 on the week) Current position 497 Deployed   184                                                           297                                           Free          229                                                          200 Range of stops as defense (as at 14.00 14th December) RBS: BP: 4 at 460;4 at 462; 2 at 467  LLOY: 4 at 65 BARC: Running: 8 on LLOY and 1 on RBS and 0 on BARC 10 on BP .......................................................................................................... Friday 24th December All I want for Christmas Eve is a big jump in LLOY and BP so that I can up my stops on the Spread Betting Account. Thursday 23rd December No action on my part expected other than the dream/hope that LLOY and BP will put on something today. 18.00: Up £62 on the day Wednesday 22nd December Having stuck my neck out am considering doing nothing until the 4th January on spread betting... dare not at present add more, am protected by stops and am punting a banking recovery and a BP recovery/rapid rise in oil prices which will enormously benefit BP (and the oils in the other column!) 11.50: On not particularly strong trade BP has come off 4 which hurts my spread betting progress, but stops not yet fired off... maybe a rally later, after all oil continues to rise. 18.00: Down 11 on the day  - BP the problem... but I feel it will go up tomorrow. Should not have said that. Tuesday 21st December 08.35: Added 2 to BP at 471.85 with a stop of 4 at 462; and added 2 to LLOY at68.12 with a stop of 4 at 65 15.35: Put on a close stop of 2 at 467; Bt 2 at 472.60 - convinced oil is set for a big rise, now! 17.00: Made £25 on the day. I am now in an overreached and vulnerable position protected by close stops. If there is a surge tomorrow in Banks and Oils (specifically LLOY and BP) then I shall ride happily into the sunset; if it goes the other way then setting on fire somewhere will be the more likely event. But trading is very thin at the moment as we head for two lengthy weekends. So it might be several days of dither, just hope the stops do not fire then the shares rebound which is always the danger. Monday 20th December Expecting banks to go rotten again 22.30: Up 17 on the day -------------------------------------------------------------------------- I began this week on Monday 13th December: Equity        333 (gained £60 on the week) Current position 413 Deployed   109                                                           184                                           Free          223                                                          229 Range of stops as defense (as at 14.00 14th December) RBS: BP:  LLOY: £2 at 450 taken off; 4 at 460; 4 at 465 gone; 4 at 465 gone again. BARC: Running: 6 on LLOY and 1 on RBS and 0 on BARC 6 on BP .......................................................................................................... Friday 17th December 18.30: Down £50 on the day and up £80 on the week. The stop at 465 went off early and yet again BP pulled back a bit proving my mantra that they are not stop losses, but keep losses when they go in the wrong direction. Thursday 16th December 09.05: Bt 2 at 465.45 in BP -  currently down £111 with one set of stops executed. The mark down at the beginning of the market was around 13p. Less than I expected, and the price is crawling back on the length of the litigation period and the fact that the litigation was expected. None of the big owners of BP seem to have made a move. Sentiment and mark down seems to be the order of the day unless I am well wrong in which case I shall be wiped out today. 13.45: Despite slight BP recovery reinstated stop of 4 at 465 13.50: Added 2 to BP at 470.2 -  real risky punt 16.30: Rebuilt BP back to a £10 punt... the opening drop of 13p now reduced to 6.5 -  perhaps tomorrow will bring a recovery which will ring benefit to me via te £10 punt - down £76 on the day. Wednesday 15th December 18.30: Up £28 on the day. Tuesday 14th December Watching, hopefully - need LLOY and BP ro RISE! 12.27: Added 2 to BP at 470.5 with a stop of 4 at 460  14.00: Added further to BP at 474 to bring the total to 10... risky.. put on a stop of 4 at 465, and took off stop of 2 at 450. Seems I may be back in spread betting business. 16.45: Finished the day up £105 Monday 13th December 11.00: I did predict a bad winter and oil is rising accordingly, now at $92 for Feb delivery, so I added £2 to BP at 461.05 with a £2 stop at 450 16.30: Was doing well today -  up £40 - but at around 15.00 oil prices began to drop and within an hour had come down an entire $ for delivery in Feb... pulling BP down. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- I began this week on Monday 6th December: Equity        333 (gained £6 on the week) Current position 398 Deployed   109                                                           159                                           Free          223                                                          239 Range of stops as defense (as at 7.30 9thth December) RBS: BP:  LLOY: BARC: Running: 6 on LLOY and 1 on RBS and 0 on BARC 5 on BP .......................................................................................................... Thursday 9th December Retreated just £6 on the day. Wednesday 8th December 18.00: Up 19 on the day, was twice as much... but getting there very slowly and cautiously. Tuesday 7th December 13.00: In consideration of oil hitting over 90$pb I have added £2 to my BP position. 18.30: Up £13 on day Monday 6th December Up £42 on the day -  pulling back 1% of the loss on the main portfolio. But every little helps. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- I began this week on Monday 29th: Equity        327 (lost £150 on the week) Current position 333 Deployed   107                                                           109                                           Free          225                                                          223 Range of stops as defense (as at 7.30 2nd December) RBS: BP:  LLOY: BARC: Running: 6 on LLOY and 1 on RBS and 0 on BARC 3 on BP .......................................................................................................... Friday 3rd December 18.30: Down £11 0n the day. Gained £6 on the week. All is not lost, just about. Thursday 2nd December 08.15: Modestly added £1 to LLOY 17.30: Up £51 on the day, at last. I have had my fingers so burnt recently... this thus comes as a blessed relief. Wednesday 1st December Tuesday 30th November Monday 29th Down £24 on the day... just cannot get it right. ------------------------------------------------------------------ I began this week on Monday 8th: Equity        327 (lost £150 on the week) Current position 308 Deployed   107                                                           100                                           Free          225                                                          208 Range of stops as defense (as at 7.30 2nd November) RBS: BP:  LLOY: BARC: Running: 5 on LLOY and 1 on RBS and 0 on BARC 3 on BP .......................................................................................................... Friday 26th November Down 16 on the day... just cannot get out of the doldrums on spread betting. Thursday 25th November Up a spec, nothing more. Wednesday 24th November Up a tad on the day: £23 Tuesday 23rd November No doubt the rout will continue until banks learn not to take absurd risks, lose everything and increase bonuses. The argument is that if they do not get bonuses they will go elsewhere. I recommend Iran and North Korea. 20.30: Finished the day down £3 Monday 22nd November Rotten ------------------------------------------------------------------- I began this week on Monday 8th: Equity        477 (gained £36 on the week) Current position 329 Deployed   293                                                           102                                           Free          184                                                          227 Range of stops as defense (as at 7.30 2nd November) RBS: BP:  LLOY: BARC: Running: 5 on LLOY and 1 on RBS and 0 on BARC 3 on BP .......................................................................................................... Thursday 18th November Wednesday 17th November Banks continue to suffer and BP has come off best of the week, thus today I have lost again, but only £1 -  perhaps the worst is over. Tuesday 16th November No activity and well down. Monday 15th November Waiting to see... probably upgrading the platform with CMC Markets this week. 18.00: No change on the day. ------------------------------------------------------------------ I began this week on Monday 8th: Equity        477 (gained £36 on the week) Current position 387 Deployed   293                                                           106                                           Free          184                                                          281 Range of stops as defense (as at 7.30 2nd November) RBS: BP:  LLOY: 25 at 66.75- Gone -  typically the moment that happened the share reversed trend. BARC: Running: 5 on LLOY and 1 on RBS and 0 on BARC 3 on BP ......................................................................................................... Friday 12th November No action Thursday 11th November Wednesday 10th November Fearing the worst I have put a stop of 25 at 66.75 on LLOY. I shall take a risk with the small figures on RBS and BP 18.00: The sad spectacle of a further loss of 58 is close to wipe out and ruination. Tomorrow looks not better. Will probably have to feed my account soon. 20.00: Made £1 on the day. CMC markets have a new platform which I shall join next week which includes trailing stops. That should save me a lot of watching. Because of my own late start tomorrow I shall be inactive on the spread betting front tomorrow. Tuesday 9th November I think today I have to change strategy and just concentrate on one share... LLOY and perhaps have a crack at shorting when the moment seems right. Which means it will like as not be wrong. 08.10: Change of strategy. Stop on LLOY kicked out leaving me with 15 running. Left 1 on RBS for old time's sake and put 2 on BP. Will now only play LLOY and BP. They are different sectors both with recovery prospects big time. I shall leave and forget, but watch -  if you can get you head round that. Admirers will be amused to note I am not back to where I was two years ago. 10.45: Added 10 to LLOY at 69 13.10: Added 1 to BP at 456.82, and 5 to LLOY at 69.37 17.00: Hopeless -  down on the day £7 - it's the bloody banks again. Absolutely NO JUSTIFICATION for their levels at this time. If I had a lot of money to spare I would BUY BUY BUY. Monday 8th November 18.00: Lost £63 on the day. Will reduce to one bank tomorrow, LLOY, and buy RBS on the open market if it hits 40 or less. ------------------------------------------------------------------- I began this week on Monday 1st: Equity        477 (lost 166 last week)  Current position 513 Deployed   293                                                     299                                            Free          184                                                    213 Range of stops as defense (as at 7.30 2nd November) RBS: 40 at 46 gone LLOY: 15 at 68.4 gone; 15 at 69; 5 at 69.5 gone; 1 at 69.75 gone BARC: Running: 30 on LLOY and 20 on RBS and 0 on BARC ............................................................................................................................. Friday 5th November Having already regained last week's losses... sweating on bank boost again today. 10.30: To my surprise - extreme surprise, and thank you the enept bankers of RBS past and present - banks dropped, my clever stops cut in and I have to review the situation. Damn. Went back in with 10 on RBS at 45.88, slightly less than the big stop. I am going to need a big rebound to get back to this morning's start. 12.45: Added 10 to LLOY at 71.07. Am thinking of abandoning RBS and just concentrating on LLOY next week. 18.00: Down 101 on the day... damned nuisance. I got the day well wrong. Thursday 4th November Rises today if anything is to be believe. 09.45: Raised stops on LLOY 15 at 69; 5 at 69.5; and 50 on RBS to 45 - this keeps about £50 of my current rise in the account. I shall continue to raise the stops as the situation develops 10.26: Added 5 to LLOY at 70.74 with a close stop at 69.75 17.30: Finished the day £129 up. The question is: are banks really going to shift now. One hot set of results from a UK bank should do the trick. And I think RBS report tomorrow. Hope the stops need to be put up rather than blown away.I have raised the RBS to knock out 40 at 46 in case it is bad news. Wednesday 3rd November Sweating on the banks doing well today. 08.55: Put 5 more on LLOY at 69.06 with a close stop of 68.40. Good news from banks across Europe. Might be a surge in banks for the rest of the week. Fingers crossed this is a good move. Raised the stop of 15 from 66.5 to 67.5 16.40: Up £14 on the day. Tuesday 2nd November Results today from RBS - could bring a dramatic movement to my spreadbetting. Will have to keep my eye on things. I have put total stops on both shares as a preservation. Maximum loss is limited to £70 10.05: The stop on Lloyds fired... and I have bought back 1 p less, with another stop 1 p below 18.00: Hard fought day, close shaves, vulnerable at the moment, hence the close stops, even so - up £24 on the day Monday 1st November I am exposed but will take the risk of doing nothing I just cannot predict which way the banks will go today. 14.30: Added 5 to LLOY - up £70 on the day at this point. 18.15: Finished day £45 up ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I began this week on Monday 25th: Equity        643  Current position 477 Deployed   354                        293                                            Free          288                       184 Range of stops as defense (as at 8.30 18th October) RBS: LLOY: BARC: Running: 10 on LLOY and 50 on RBS and 0 on BARC ............................................................................................................................................. Friday 29th October Leaving things as they are -  hoping RBS will prosper. Ended the day up 18 Thursday 28th October 20.00: Up a remarkably reassuring £18 on the day - correction... down 30. Wednesday 27th October. Banks due for a pull back 08.10: No prospect of that it seems so to ensure that CMS do not take me out I have reduced LLOY to 10... now watch the banks rise in revenge! 08.55: Just amazing. Told you so. The moment I drop out of LLOY it reverses... sure proof I am going to hell. 09.00: Added 10 to RBS at 45.03 - now watch this go the hell down. 10.35: Smelling blood -  probably my own - I have added a further 10 to RBS at 45.37 - no stops as I am at the computer most of the day and will judge the situation manually. 17.30: Finished £7 up on the day... which is a step in the right direction. Tuesday 26th October: 09.00: The debacle continues -  slight fall thus far... if the figures are bad in half an hour I shall be wiped. 14.00: Slight recovery which means I am not losing as much as I was five hours ago. I think running two banks is not a good strategy. I shall think of a better way. The trouble is that earlier successes blinded me to the potential hazards. 18.00: Down £15 on the day... think tomorrow might be a good one. Monday 25th October: 08.30: Taking a big hit... down £100 already... what to do? 16.00: This is a bad day... I have decided to run with my loss today in the hope of a turnaround tomorrow. At this rate I shall get wiped on my Spread Betting account. I think I must change tactic and run with only one share. I shall decide tomorrow. What a bitch the banks are. Or investors are... this current fall is NOT justified. Both LLOY and RBS are moving into BUY situations on the main market. Might add some RBS if they continue to fall tomorrow. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I began this week on Monday 17th: Equity        606  Current position 584 Deployed   349                        348                                            Free          257                       236 Range of stops as defense (as at 8.30 18th October) RBS: 10 at 46.25 gone LLOY: BARC: Running: 30 on LLOY and 30 on RBS and 0 on BARC ............................................................................................................................. Friday 22nd October Another watching brief... let's hope it is not a black Friday. Thursday 21st October 17.30: Up and down all day finishing £10 down... things are not good on the spread betting front. Wednesday 20th October Waiting to see what happens. 09.30: Started to look dangerous so I took 10 off LLOY at 70.38 and 10 off RBS at 46.71 12.00: Presumed crisis abated put back 10 on LLOY at 70.88 -  thrown away £3! Hell! Tueday 19th October Watching brief... 08.50: Added 10 RBS at 47.18 with a stop of 10 at 46.25 (up 51 at this moment) 19.00: Down £28 on the day -  banks up and down all day... I think they are going to breakout upwards very soon. Monday 18th October: Banks rallied at the end of the week and I am just leaving things to run - to wipe me or rise me. As the week rolls by I shall change this as seen right. Last week down 200.  Once I was up 3000, starting from £450 to play with. Things are not going well. If only I could get the feel for shorting and then get the shorts right. 13.30: Added 10  to RBS at 46.38 no stops yet 19.00: Up £65 on the day, thank whatever... and RBS not yet kicked in. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I began this week on Monday 4th: Equity        806  Current position 592 Deployed    460                        342                                             Free          385                         249Range of stops as defense (as at 8.30 11th October) RBS: 20 at 47 gone; 20 at 46.50 gone LLOY: 20 at 72.75 gone BARC: Running: 30 on LLOY and 30 on RBS and 0 on BARC Friday 15th October -  a black Friday??? Is today going to be the worse ever... and a wipe out... perhaps shorting on one as a hedge. Regained a rather pathetic £14 on the day.  But maybe the worst is over. Next week shall show. Thursday 14th October A terrible day with another 148 gone... I am daring to leave what is left 30 on each still on. When am I going to learn to short!?!?!? Wednesday 13th October I await the bell. 12.00: Slight recovery, leave things as they are. Tuesday 12 October I can see the stops being kicked in in the first moments... then we have to wait. A decline on the day and a rise on the week but with the stops knocking keeping in losses (stop loss=keep loss in my ever frustrating experience) the rise I hope for later in the week will be limited. Hey ho. 08.27: As bloody predicted... stops blown and I am down £70 with 30 left on either share. 12.50: Went back into RBS for 20 at 47.24 with a stop of 20 at 46.50 (if it goes there I will buy some more on the open market -  I have a target for an additional 2000 at 46ish) 17.00: Down £48 on the day... so painful. But it was down £80... maybe on the morrow I shall recover some. Monday 11th October I am just going to sit and wait and risk no stops on the basis of an hoped for rise in banks on the week. Crazy but that is the strategy. 08.41: Added 10 to LLOY at 73.72 08.43: Added 20 to LLOY at 73.69 with 20 stop at 72.75 -  a nervous close stop. 09.40: Added 20 to RBS at 47.91 with a 20 stop at 47 16.45: After early promise and a good rise ended the day about £11 down... tomorrow, tomorrow, maybe -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I began this week on Monday 4th: Equity        890  Current position 846 Deployed    289                         460                                             Free          597                          385 Range of stops as defense (as at 9.30 4th October) RBS: LLOY: BARC: Running: 20 on LLOY and 30 on RBS and 0 on BARC Friday 8th October Almost £200 down yesterday on a grim movement of Banks. Just cannot quite grasp why this is. Hope for a recovery today... fat hope of that with the way things are going. Risking leaving things as they are without stops and shall adjust manually if I get really scared. 12.11: I am scared so I have taken off 10 from LLOY at 77.80 and 20 from RBS at 46.95 -  Barclays flapping about seems to be the core. I will get it all back later... I hope. At one point this week my Equity was over £1,100 now it is £777. Damn 13.40: Fairly typical... I take some money off and up they go! Stands at £815 - it would have been £840 had I done nothing. But marginal panic set in. Thursday 7th October All stops activated and I am down a damned £120 already at 8.30 0830: Down £127 sold 1 Barclays as an irrelevance. Wednesday 6th October Am nervous about the day, will it rise again or not...should I add ... inclined to go for broke - the cavalryman in me - and favour LLOY with close stops. Far East blue with 177 pts on Nikkei - suggesting strong rise. Should be a good day. 08.03: Added 10 to each - RBS at 49.43; LLOY at 76.06 08.04: Added 10 to LLOY at76.26 with a stop of 20 at 75.25 10.12: Added 10 to LLOY with a stop at 75.75 13.05: Added 10 to LLOY at 76.71 with a stop at 76.00 - raised 20 stop from 75.25 to 75.50 Tuesday 5th October Banks coming back - added 10 to LLOY at 74.5 and 10 to RBS at 28.15 One of my readers is SB in Barclays BARC - so I have put a £1 bet to rise so that I can get the feel of this share. Keeps me in the banking sector, thus rises are good and falls are very un-good. 18.00: It appears that my timing was good and I was up £118 on the day. Monday 4th October Having returned to UK should be able to give the spread betting greater concentration. 08.25: Grim start with banks down. I have decided to do nothing but watch (maybe observing the end of the world) the decline, but hope that a recovery will permit the losses to rectify themselves without stops being in place and with the free equity coping. Don't bother to watch this space is the gut feeling. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I began this week on Monday 27th: Equity        1039  Current position  890 Deployed    425                         289                                      Free          613                          600         Range of stops as defense (as at 9.30 1st October) RBS: LLOY: Running: 20 on LLOY and 30 on RBS Friday 1st October Rotton week accesserbated by being unable to watch the screen and several internet failures in Sri Lanka. Stops gave some protection, and now intend to leavethe limited stakes to do their worst or best and will return to the battle on Monday. Wednesday 29th September I have been hit hard this week with banks retreating for no worthwhile reason that I can glean. I shall sit and wait. Monday 27th September 2010 Under preparation I began this week on Monday 20th: Equity        968   Current position  1032 Deployed    246                            252                                          Free          722                              780         Range of stops as defense (as at 9.30 20th Sept) RBS: LLOY: Running: 20 on LLOY and 30 on RBS Thursday 23rd September A day missed. Added 10 to each of RBS and LLOY with a 10 stop on LLOY which was actioned later in the day when the market fell. Tuesday 21st September 2010 Being prepared, but do to frequent and lengthy absense from the screen through to 3rd Ocober spread betting activities will be minimal. Monday 20th September 2010 Last week I ended £100 down, but at once point ws £300 up so the reversals after Tuesday in Banks lost me £400. My stops brought sense to the situation and now I am relatively safe even without stops. Because of my lack of time at the screen in the coming 12 days I am leaving things where they are with the optimistic aim of geting back above £1000 of equity before 4th October. I began this week on Monday 13th: Equity        1064   Current position  1169  Deployed    519                               885                       Free          544                              283                Range of stops as defense (as at 9.30 13th Sept) RBS: 20 at 48.00; 20 48.50; 20 46.25,now 48.0; 30 at 49; 10 at 49.25 LLOY: 10 at 76.50; 20 at 77.10 Running: 30 on LLOY and 90 on RBS Thursday 16th No action foreseen - stops have protected. Rather think banks will decline today. Wednesday 5th September No action foreseen today Tuesday 14th September I dare not bet more. I am vulnerable to a drop at the opening of 2p each which will close me out. I am hoping for a further slight rise in banks today. Unfortunately I shall not be able to make corrections so I am taking a big chance on no major reversal. Wednesday morning will reveal whether I am right, or that my stops have saved me from a wipe out by the skin of my teeth. Ended the day up £23 - but the £30 stop on LLOY was activated. Monday 13th September Unfortunately had had 30 taken off LLOY late on Friday due to a too cautious stop and missed a further £100 rise on the account. By the time I was on the computer I was up £200. 09.00: Early dreams dissipating and up 180. I have adjusted stops to take note of the rises on average by about 2p - so that I have secured half of the rise. I am going to wait to see if there is a fall off and then put on a little more on both shares with close stops... often not good but safe, and if the rise continues then I am literally quids in. 09.16: Careless... clicked the wrong key and put 30 on RBS at 49.92 instead of LLOY... decided to leave it and put a stop of 49 as a safety measure. Now 90 on RBS and 30 on LLOY 17.00: As day wore on added to both LLO and RBS with stops, see new stops above, and finished the day £161 up, but slightly vulnerable with free margin. Will be away from screen tomorrow so anything could happen. I began this week be 10th September: Equity        909   Current position   1064 Deployed    684                            519 Free           225                           544 Range of stops as defense (as at 9.30 6th Sept) RBS: 20 at 45.5 gone; 20 at 45.75 gone; 20 at 46 gone; 10 at 46.10 gone; 20 at 45.25, now 46.50; 10 at 47, now 47.50; 20 at 46.25,now 47.5 LLOY: 20 at 72 Gone; 30 at 75.25 gone Friday 10th September I am going to let things run this day... but then I say that every day. Expecting a decline in banks, on the other hand they closed yesterday near their highs, turnover was high with buying outweighing selling enough to suggest a head of steam building but not there yet... fingers crossed. (That is fence sitting of greatest quality). 40 on LLOY; 60 on RBS, not stops on LLOY 09.50: RBS stop 20 up from 46.25 to 47.50; 10 up from 47 to 47.50 (Up £100 on the day) 09.55: Took risk of adding 20 to LLOY at 76.07 to 60 with close stop of 30 at 75.25 15.45: At some point when I was away there must have been a reverse and the 30 pinged off LLOY and then, as usually happens, the share rose.  Even so I am £70 up at the moment and earlier it was not more than £110 up. 16.35: Finished up £56 Thursday 9th September Wait and see day, I think. 08.10: Maybe not... added 10 to RBS at 45.98 with a stop at 45.25 (Up  34) 08.15: Added 10 to RBS at 46.04 with a stop (now 20) at 45,25 (up 43) 08:20: Added 10 to LLOY Damn - the greed devil rides my shoulder... (up 35 -  they dropped the minute I hit LLOY) 10.10: But so far so good (up 105) with 40 on LLOY and 50 on RBS -  moved the stop up to 45.50 13.45:  Added 10 to RBS at 47.62 with a stop at 47, raised the 20 stop to 46.50, added another 20 stop at 46.25 (Up 153) 16.30: Up 171 on the day. Wednesday 8th September: After yesterday's debacle might be a good idea to do nothing. I am away from the computer a lot, but do not think I am vulnerable. Doing nothing is both safe and a risk... depends which way it goes. 09.15: Miserable banking news everywhere has driven them down further. Final stop on RBS gone. I am not playing the shorting game, but will be looking for a point to go back in at lower prices than I was stopped out. But if there is a sudden rise I will just live with what I have. I remain CONVINCED that LLOY and RBS are going to astonish on next set of results. May buy some on the open market if this present (unjustified) decline continues this week. 14.30: Added 10 to RBS at 45.73 16.30: Down £11 on the day now running 30 each on RBS and LLOY with no stops. Tuesday 7th September: No action proposed, let the stops protect. 08.30: And so it happened. LLOY stopped out 20 at 72. Looking for a point to go back in... went in 10 at 71.61 (down 80 at the moment) 08.35: Drift down gathering momentum, lined up to take some out of RBS and accidently hit the button and took out 10 at 46.22... regarded it as a saving grace or a punishment, with the revelation to come, and left it. (down 110 at the moment) 08.45: Further 10 stopped out in RBS at 46.10. 09.00: Further 20 stopped out in RBS at 46  (Down 121 at the moment) See how quickly it happens! 09.45: And no sooner did the 45 stop fire and up the price went... so I kept my loss... see the Spread Betting Page -  currently under construction. (Down 90 at the moment) 15.00: Further stop of 20 at 45.75 activated. Banks are really bad. Cannot really see the justification.... now have 20 on LLOY and 40 on RBS -  which in a retreat is quite a lot, but a reverse will win me back a trifle. Down 110 - not a good day at all. Should, yet again, have shorted. 15.45: Call me a self inflicting wounder but  put 10 back on LLOY at 72.70 17.00: Ended £95 down, back to somewhere last week. Towards the end there was a bit of 'bouncing along the bottom' I think and if the DOW improves, and the Far East stays in the blue mostly I think I may pull back tomorrow. Never mind, at least I am not as vulnerable as I was this morning and I think my stops were useful, if there is a rise tomorrow they will have been less so, if a fall then they were masterly. Monday 6th September: At the opening I have 30 on LLOY and 100 on RBS with the figures running above. If there is a rapid rise I shall move up such stops as I have. They are at the moment historic and need to be wiped and reviewed. I do not contemplate adding more at the moment because I have so little free equity and a drop could be very dangerous. I am playing a very risky hand at the moment with far too much money exposed. But a rise of 1p in both shares will give me a rise of £130 in seconds... let's see. 18.00: At one point I was up 70, but the onus was on LLOY and RBS lost ground so I ended the day up £25. I sense a lot of steam in the banks. Tomorrow should deliver. See the left hand column end of day. (Friday Closing: Although this is an improved situation I am exposed with so little free equity. If I drop too much CMC Markets will liquidate all of my positions. I have suffered this painful obliteration before.  However a drop in RBS to 46 from 46.52 (Closing) will stop out £30 and balance the books a little more safely. I am banking, if I can put it that way, on a further rise in banks on Monday. Once more, we shall see. I have made £200 on the week.) Friday 3rd September: I began this week: Equity        714   Current position   909 Deployed    268                            684 Free            445                           225 I plan to do nothing today -  just watch... just watch me change my mind. 14.00: Doing nothing seems to be doing good... up 70 at the moment. Thought of putting more on, but decided not. End of the week. Anything could happen over the weekend. Put more on and it goes down: bad; put nothing on, it goes down: not so bad. It goes up: good. 15.00: With the Dow opening and getting to 120 in no time and the FTSE nibbling at 80 and with my SB account up 90 I put 20 more on RBS at 47.02 with a 20 stop at 46 and the SB account promptly went down to 60, then up to 80. I also cancelled a stop of 10 on RBS at 45 and moved it up to 46.10 17.20: Made £46 on the day. Thursday 2nd September I have 60 running on RSB and 30 on LLOY 09.20: The Far East and USA were blue; Europe went red. Then slowly my screen became more blue and banks rose then fell then rose again so I have decided to have a go and back my gut feeling of a general rise today and tomorrow and put £40 on RBS at 46.50 making 100 with a £40 stop at 46.10. I am up £64. 9.50: Damn, reversal took place and the stop was activated. Never mind, try again when I have a gut feeling... just goes to show nobody knows what will happen next. 10.05: Try again -  put on 20 at 46.36 with a stop of 20 at 45.5 - I think my earlier stop was too close because it was pinged out and then RBS went back up... I had put the stop at the bottom of the trough, rather than just underneath it. 21.20: Up £18 on the day. Wednesday 1st September After the run of falls over the last few days I am reluctant to put more money on. Any rise is an improvement... I shall start to add when the overall is over 800 -  which might happen today. 09.15: Added 10 to RBS at 44.93 making 40 with 20 still on LLOY (whole up 20) 11.40: Added a further 10 to RBS at 45.32 making 50, no stops (whole up 30); I am moving towards betting on a single share - RBS 15.15: Put 10 on LLOY @71.09 with a stop at 70; and a further 10 on RBS @ 45.59 with a stop at 45. All figures coming out of USA today are good. I think the whole market is in for a couple of further days of rising. DOW at 118 (off a bit) and the FTSE at 82 rising. SB A/C up 70 18.30: Up £92 on the day. Tuesday 31st August I began this week: Equity        714   Current position   733 Deployed    268                            270 Free            445                           463 Probably lose again today... I suppose I should short... but not at all certain what will happen. So I am going to do nothing. 15.00: Masterly inactivity appears to win the day as the £60-70 down in the early part of the market of gloom has turned, as I write, to my being up £45. Wait until tomorrow. 19.30: Really expected a retreat today and was hoping to buy a few more RBS on the market, but was thwarted though the initial expectation was met. Never mind I am up £28 on the day. Suspect that tomorrow will bring a further rise in banks... but who knows? Monday 30th August No activity today Friday 27th August: I began the week: Equity        877  Present position  714 Deployed    484                          268 Free           393                          445 10.30: No sense of direction, except down, at the moment - no action. Down £40 19.15:  Though today I did finish up £13 it was not a good week on spread betting... I should have shorted earlier in the week... but I did not so I am down £160 on the week. I get hit with two bank shares running when there is a decline. I make good on a rise. I wonder if I should just choose one and run with that... LLOY I think. We shall see.  Have a nice weekend. Thursday 26th August: Once more into the goddamned blasted breach dear friends - I have suffered much out of personal greed and fear these last few days... not two weeks ago I had £1,700 -  now look at it! I began the week: Equity        877  Present position  698 Deployed    484                         266 Free           393                        431 09.00:  The worst part of a stop loss is that if a reverse takes place then it becomes a keep loss. I am up 58 at the moment, but had I not been stopped out yesterday at point I never thought would be touched I would be up at least twice that amount. But I am going to take it easy on the account and do nothing until my Equity is even stronger - currently 700. 18.00: Well, bit of an improvement - finished the day £60 up. I am expecting tomorrow to be better, and may go for a little extra on. Wednesday 25th August What to do? Just leave things as they are and lose money or pull out and lose money? I think I am going to do nothing, and lose money.  14.00: I really should have shorted. Various stops have cut in and I am left with 20 on LLOY and 30 on RBS. I think I must now move towards operating on just one of these to save the double whammy effect. OK when you are making money in a sector, at the moment positively evil (and painful): Down 77 and worsening. 18.00:  It is my own fault I should have pulled out and shorted.  Now only 20 running on LlOY and 30 on RBS - and down a damned £80 on the day. I am having a run of bad decisions. URGENT CONFESSION - 24th What am I doing!?  In the face of a strategy that banks will rise I have ignored the fairly obvious indicators that today would bring a fall. I stuck with betting on a rise... how stupid can you get? Saved by a stop I then went back in and still the fall went on. Actually these are not particular disasterous falls but because of the gearing at the heart of Spread Betting I am making between 100-300% losses. Movement is in waves... stayed cool and a loss at 9.45 of £110 was a loss of £70 at 9.50. I am going to stick with my mistakes. 19.00: And that cost me £133... but looking at the lows must have been at least £160 down at one point. Not sure if £133 is a silver lining or not. Not. Tuesday 24th August I began the week: Equity        877  Present position  733 Deployed    484                         402 Free           393                         330 08.35: Not good... a 20 stop cut out in RBS at 45 leaving me with 20 on (LLOY 40) and a loss of 76. Went back in with 10 more on RBS at 44.85, no stop. Now I shall close my eyes in prayer. Monday 23rd August I have 50 on RBS and 30 on LLOY. I hope for a rise in banks and shall react accordingly. If banks decline I shall do nothing and leave my protective stops and OCO (One Cancells the Other stops) orders to save me from total wipeout, and then begin all over again, again. 8.50: Friday's close stop of 20 on LLOY took me out at 69 and the market reversed. As I write LLOY are 70. So the stop in saving my potential bacon has lost me over £30. To go back in or not. YES. Added 10 at 70.08, no stops. 40 running. Up 42 today as I write. 11.00: Put another 10 on LLOY at 69.99, no stop 12.25: With what looks like a general advance put 10 more on RBS with no stop. Up73 17.00: All was going well until around 15.50 when I noticed that every graph to hand: Oil;Dow;FTSE;LLOY were suddenly sharply down. I intervened and took 20 off both bank shares since I felt vulnerable. I finished the day 14 down. Very irritating. However the main portfolio will be up. That will be assessed at 18.00 Friday 20th August  No changes envisaged. Big loss expected. And I was right! Damn Thursday 19th August I began the week: Equity       969   Present position: 977 Deployed   281                              584 Free          687                              393 08.10 Up 36 on a general advance. No action. Wednesday 18th August I began the week: Equity       969   Present position: 1023 Deployed   281                              588 Free          687                              434 I have 50 running on both RBS and LLOY with stops and OCOs as mentioned in yesterday's blogs... scroll down. Today I shall let things run and see what happens. Suspect a substantial rise -  2p per share... perhaps 200 on the day... let's see if I am right. If I am right I shall move up the stops to follow the price improvement. 09.00: Down 50 and falling... could be worse, probably will be. No action. 12.00: Some recovery and now up £20. Masterly inactivity is the order of the day. 17.45: It simply did not happen today, finished £6 down... tomorrow and tomorrow and tommorrow... Tuesday 17th August Watching and waiting... 08.30: Added 10 to LLOY at 70.28, no stops - market appears to be strengthening and banks have been hit last few days. 08.55: Added 10 to LLOY at 70.08 with a stop of 20 set at 69. 09.00: For completeness I added 10 to RBS at 46.36 with a stop of 20 at 45 - the higher stops are incorporating earlier non stop-covered bets.  Now have £50 running on both these shares. Sense a rise today of about 1p in both banks... 14.30: SB up £80 -  sweating. 15.30:  SB closed up £102 - after a lot of rising and falling. It has been mentioned variously that Banks are responding to the not bad, rather than good global economic news. I hesitate to add... but shall see what tomorrow brings. Monday 16th August On the Spread Betting Front: I began the week: Equity       969 Deployed   281 Free          687 I shall wait and watch... I often have punted on BP but it really is so uncertain I am staying out of it. I shall stick with RBS and LLOY At the moment (07.55): 20 Bet on LLOY hoping for a rise, no stops 30 Bet on RBS hoping for a rise, no stops 10.00: Down £39, placed an extra 10 on LLOY @ 69.38 with a spread bet OCO (one cancels the other) to sell 10 @ 65 or 90. (Means loss limited to about £45 and gain to about £205 -  nice if it happens). This is truer spread betting than I usually employ - strategic rather than tactical. I can over-ride it at any time. 14.00: Down £53, placed an extra 10 on RBS @ 45.95 with a spread bet OCO (one cancels the other) to sell 10 @ 42 or 70. (Means loss limited to about £35 and gain to about £305). Something good is going to happen to banks soon, I feel it in my pocket.  17.00: Finished £60 down. Friday: Began:                 Ended Equity      970         969 Deployed 281         281 Free        689         687 LLOY 20 Bet to rise, no stops; RBS 30Bet to rise, no stops (Made 40 yesterday) 8.45: Up 50 - but taking no action because of being out most of the rest of the day - taking 10 yo to HMS Belfast, the river, and then the Aquarium... somewhere along the road an opportunity to go to a MacDonalds... my idea, not his. 19.00: Trip a success (see Blog) No change, on the day in the spread betting, which is unusual. Shall see what next week hols. Thursday: Equity      932 Deployed 162 Free         770 LLOY 10 Bet to rise, no stops; RBS 20 Bet to rise, no stops (Lost 262 yesterday) 10.00: Was up about 50 earlier, but now down a dithering 5. No actions taken. I think banks are bouncing on the new bottom. But too scared to go back in at the moment. Let's see what the day reveals. 10.10: Added 10 to LLOY at 69.15; and 10 to RBS at 46.25 - I am convinced they will get back to 70s and 50s in a few days. 17.00: SB ended up 40 thank God - Equity      970 Deployed 281 Free        689 I was down about 50 at 2.30 but there was a general improvement on the market from the moment the DOW opened.