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Fuller Comments on Individual shares held or being watched
Preamble:In the USA and to a lesser extent elsewhere, the steam room
syndrome of selling products and getting commission was endemic. If the product was a mortgage with a rate of 1% why not sell
to someone on benefit if they wanted to buy their crumbling bungalo or static mobile home, the repayment was less than the
rent. Then interest rates went up to 5% rapidly and they all defaulted. The toxic products had already been sold on to other
banks as a going concern, but NO money was being paid back and the bungalo fell down and the mobile home was blown away in
a hurricane... in a nutshell that's what happened. And at the top the executives were paid in millions to lose billions.
So: LLOYDS http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/investors.asp LLOY:
I had been acquiring Lloyds for some time - the dividend was good yielding at
least 6% and being raised. Then the debacle of the super stupidity of Northern Rock struck, and so did everything else. Shares
bought by me at £6 became worth 60p at high speed... and £20,000 invested became worth £5,000 with every
prospect of disappearing altogether. Then it went to about 15... and slowly has come back to about 70. But this has been a
fundamental blow to the balance of my portfolio and costs me in excess of £1,500 a year in income - no income at all.
I am NOT alone. I wait. FUTURE: I am holding on to these shares and have been predicting for some
months a price of at least 100 by Christmas. Very bright people are running this bank. I think my strategy would be to reduce
or get rid of the Government holding as soon as possible because the share price has already broken even. May as well pay
off now, rather than when the price is a 100 or more. They are building a cash mountain and essentially the debt they owe
to the Government is a cheap debt so long as they pay off early. They are performing above Survey (but they always get it
wrong anyway, whichever way it goes), toxic matters are already incorportated in the share price. They are a serious BUY in my view, but am not adding because I have enough and more would bring inbalance to
my strategy. Update 1st September: reported the taxpayer is set to gain about 30 billion
in profits when the shares and bonds are sold and repaid! Proves the point that in the background banks are doing very well. I am seeing a run of lower lows and sense a breakout to 80 - around 1st week
in October or before. (12 October - well - I got that one wrong!)Royal Bank of Scotland http://www.rbs.com/home.ashx RBS : WORSE! But I had none - yeah! So I bought 2000 at 10p
and sold them at 40p. I now have 3,000 bought around 30-50p... and wait. Whilst LLOY is around 40% held by the Government
RBS is about 80% - again I think management will try to off load the Government control by paying back. But here the Government
will have a stronger view than is possible on the LLOY board. Maybe the Government, the new one, might have need of being
bankers taking into account their poisonous inheritance. (Do we EVER hear anything from Brown these days - the arch architect
of disaster, then the saving of the world, then the losing of face. There is a strong case for Scottish independence and for
a handful of Scots to be sent back to their own land of the foolhardy. Remember reading somewhere of the Scots politicians
putting up Iceland as an example of a successful LITTLE country. Some example.
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